Amcor's Post-Split Plunge: A 6.2% Intraday Drop Amid Analyst Divergence and Volatile Options Activity

Summary
• Amcor (AMCR) completes 1-for-5 reverse stock split on Jan 14, 2026, triggering immediate price adjustment
• Intraday price drops 6.19% to $41.425, hitting a 5-day low amid mixed analyst forecasts
• Options chain shows extreme volatility, with 2026-02-20 put options trading at 28–45% implied volatility

Amcor’s stock has plunged nearly 6.2% intraday following its reverse stock split execution, sparking a sharp selloff despite the company’s stated goal of attracting investors. The move has ignited a flurry of analyst activity, with price targets ranging from $9 to $60. Technical indicators show a fractured market sentiment, as overbought RSI levels clash with bearish volume divergence. Traders are now scrutinizing the options chain for high-leverage plays amid the stock’s volatile post-split debut.

Reverse Stock Split Sparks Immediate Price Correction
Amcor’s 1-for-5 reverse stock split, effective Jan 14, 2026, triggered an immediate repricing of its shares. The adjustment reduced the float by 80%, but the market interpreted the move as a sign of desperation rather than strategic repositioning. While the company cited improved liquidity as a goal, the intraday low of $41.16 suggests investors remain skeptical. Analysts like Baird’s Ghansham Panjabi upgraded the stock to Outperform, citing synergy potential from the Berry Global acquisition, but this optimism clashed with downgrades from Wells Fargo and BofA, who questioned the sustainability of Amcor’s long-term growth narrative. The resulting divergence in sentiment has created a volatile trading environment.

Containers & Packaging Sector Mixed as Amcor Underperforms
The broader Containers & Packaging sector showed mixed performance, with sector leader International Paper (IP) declining 0.87% intraday. While Amcor’s post-split selloff was sharper than the sector’s average, the company’s unique capital structure and recent acquisition integration challenges have isolated its volatility. Packaging peers like DS Smith and SIG Group remain in consolidation phases, suggesting Amcor’s move is more company-specific than sector-driven.

High-Leverage Put Options and ETF Alternatives for Volatility-Driven Plays
• 200-day MA: 8.98 (far below current price) | RSI: 99.07 (overbought) | MACD: 2.93 (bullish) | Bollinger Bands: $26.21 (upper) to -$5.73 (lower)
• Turnover Rate: 0.89% (moderate) | 52W Range: $38.33–$52.25

Amcor’s technical profile is a paradox: overbought RSI and bullish MACD clash with bearish volume divergence. The stock is trading near its 52-week low, creating a high-risk, high-reward environment. For options traders, the AMCR20260220P40 and AMCR20260220P41 contracts stand out.

• AMCR20260220P40 (Put, $40 strike, 2026-02-20): IV 28.01%, Leverage 48.69%, Delta -0.335, Theta -0.021, Gamma 0.0998, Turnover $2,143. High implied volatility and moderate delta suggest strong potential for a 5% downside move.
• AMCR20260220P41 (Put, $41 strike, 2026-02-20): IV 29.91%, Leverage 30.21%, Delta -0.444, Theta -0.0246, Gamma 0.101, Turnover $652. Strong gamma and theta indicate sensitivity to price swings and time decay.

Payoff estimates under a 5% downside scenario (to $39.35): AMCR20260220P40 yields $0.65 per contract; AMCR20260220P41 yields $1.65. Aggressive bears should prioritize AMCR20260220P41 for its higher leverage and gamma. If $40 breaks, this contract offers short-side potential.

Backtest Amcor Stock Performance
After experiencing a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present, AMCR has shown mixed short-term performance but has generally recovered and even surpassed its initial levels. The backtest indicates a 3-day win rate of 49.79%, a 10-day win rate of 44.58%, and a 30-day win rate of 47.50%, suggesting that the stock tends to rebound over the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 9.32% over 30 days, with a maximum return day at 59, indicating that while there is potential for gains, the stock's performance can be volatile.

Volatility to Persist: Watch for $38.50 Support and Analyst Rating Shifts
Amcor’s post-split volatility is far from resolved. The stock’s overbought RSI and bearish volume divergence suggest a potential correction to test the $38.50–$39.00 range, where 200-day MA and analyst price targets congregate. Traders should monitor the AMCR20260220P41 contract for directional bias and the sector leader International Paper (IP), which is down 0.87% intraday, as a barometer for broader market sentiment. With analyst ratings split between optimism and caution, the next 10 days will be critical for clarity. Position yourself for a breakout or breakdown—Amcor’s story is far from over.