Amcor Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Volatile Technicals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Amcor (AMCR) is showing a bearish technical outlook, with a weak internal diagnostic score of 3.91, suggesting caution for potential investors.

News Highlights

Recent news affecting Amcor or the broader packaging industry includes:

• May 28, 2025 - EPE USA’s Sustainable Packaging Push: EPE USA announced new sustainable packaging initiatives, including reusable and recyclable materials. While not directly related to Amcor, this signals a growing industry trend toward eco-friendly practices that may impact Amcor's competitive positioning.
• May 31, 2025 - Ohio Pension Fund Cuts Stake in Packaging Co. of America: The Ohio Public Employees Retirement System reduced its holdings in Packaging Co. of America (PKG). This may reflect broader caution in the packaging sector, potentially affecting investor sentiment toward Amcor as well.
• May 31, 2025 - Trump Fast-Tracks Utah Uranium Mine: While not directly tied to Amcor, the news highlights shifting geopolitical and industrial policies under the new administration, which could indirectly influence global supply chains and materials pricing relevant to Amcor’s operations.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Amcor’s recent analyst activity has been limited, with just one rating issued by Baird's Ghansham Panjabi on August 15, 2025, which was a Neutral rating. The simple average rating is 3.00, while the historical performance-weighted rating stands at 2.08. These scores suggest moderate skepticism, and this aligns with the current price trend, which has seen a 1.66% drop in recent days.

The fundamental score for Amcor is 5.07, indicating a somewhat mixed outlook. Here are the key fundamental metrics and their model scores:

• Shareholders’ equity attributable to parent company / Total liabilities (%) = 30.58% (Internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Annualized return on equity (%) = 18.47% (Internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Operating cycle = 119.89 days (Internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Total operating revenue (YoY growth rate %) = -1.49% (Internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Equity multiplier = 4.27 (Internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate %) = 23.74% (Internal diagnostic score: 2)
• ROE (diluted %) = 9.36% (Internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Total profit (YoY growth rate %) = 29.13% (Internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate %) = 23.23% (Internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Operating revenue (YoY growth rate %) = -1.49% (Internal diagnostic score: 3)

While earnings growth appears strong, the negative revenue growth and weak ROE raise red flags about Amcor’s ability to sustain this performance. Investors should keep an eye on these metrics in future reports.

Money-Flow Trends

Amcor’s fund-flow data is mixed. The fund-flow score is 7.67, indicating positive inflow activity across various investor segments. However, all segments—Small, Medium, Large, and Extra-large—showed negative price trends, meaning the flows did not translate into strong price performance. Here's a breakdown of inflow ratios:

• Small inflow ratio: 47.08%
• Medium inflow ratio: 47.40%
• Large inflow ratio: 48.27%
• Extra-large inflow ratio: 48.32%
• Overall inflow ratio: 48.15%

This suggests that big-money investors are still somewhat optimistic, but the bearish technicals and weak price action indicate the market remains uncertain.

Key Technical Signals

Amcor’s technical outlook is weak, with an internal diagnostic score of 3.91. Here are the key indicators and their scores:

• WR Oversold (Internal diagnostic score: 2.55) – Suggests a potential rebound, but past signals have shown mixed results (avg. return: -0.07%, win rate: 47.22%).
• MACD Golden Cross (Internal diagnostic score: 1) – Generally bullish, but historically bearish for AMCR (avg. return: -1.83%, win rate: 23.08%).
• Marubozu White (Internal diagnostic score: 1) – A bearish candlestick pattern with poor historical performance (avg. return: -1.61%, win rate: 25.0%).
• Dividend Record Date (Internal diagnostic score: 7.5) – Historically positive (avg. return: 0.74%, win rate: 75.0%).
• Ex-Dividend Date (Internal diagnostic score: 7.5) – Another positive indicator, showing consistent returns for the stock.

Recent chart patterns include:

• September 11, 2025: MACD Golden Cross and Marubozu White
• September 5, 2025: WR Oversold, Ex-Dividend Date, Dividend Record Date

The key insight from the technical analysis is that the market is in a volatile state with no clear direction. Momentum is weak, and mixed signals suggest that traders should be cautious and monitor the stock closely for any breakout or breakdown.

Conclusion

Amcor is currently in a precarious position, with mixed fundamentals, weak technicals, and cautious analyst sentiment. While earnings growth is strong, revenue contraction and poor ROE raise questions about sustainability. The fund-flow score is positive, but the price is falling, and the technicals suggest a weak setup.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend to emerge before entering a position in AMCR. With the stock near a dividend event and showing signs of volatility, a pull-back or breakout could offer a better entry point.