Ambarella pierde un 10% en una sola jornada: ¿Qué está causando esta repentina caída de precios?

Summary
• Ambarella (AMBA) plunges 12.37% to $70.665, its lowest since March 2025
• CV7 SoC launch and Developer Zone expansion announced at CES 2026
• Insider selling totals $2.34M in 90 days, with CFO and VP reducing holdings
• Q4 2025 revenue up 31.2% YoY to $108.45M, but net margin remains negative at -21.31%

Ambarella’s stock is in freefall despite a flurry of product announcements and strategic partnerships. The 12.37% intraday drop—its worst since March 2025—has traders scrambling to parse the disconnect between bullish fundamentals and bearish sentiment. With the stock trading near its 200-day SMA and a $3.04B market cap, the selloff raises urgent questions about market confidence in the edge AI leader’s execution and profitability.

Product Hype vs. Profitability Realities
Ambarella’s CV7 SoC launch and Developer Zone expansion, announced at CES 2026, should have bolstered investor confidence. However, the stock’s collapse reflects skepticism about the company’s ability to translate innovation into profitability. Despite a 31.2% YoY revenue surge in Q4 2025, Ambarella’s net margin remains a staggering -21.31%, and analysts project a -2.81 EPS for 2026. Insider selling—$2.34M in 90 days—further signals unease among executives. The market is punishing Ambarella for its lack of profitability, even as it dominates edge AI innovation with partnerships like LG’s in-cabin safety systems and Lotus’ 4D radar tech.

Semiconductor Sector Rally vs. AMBA's Downturn
The semiconductor sector, led by Nvidia’s 0.905% intraday gain, is in a bull phase driven by AI demand. However, Ambarella’s 12.37% drop starkly contrasts with the sector’s resilience. While peers like Micron and TSMC benefit from AI-driven memory shortages, Ambarella’s negative net margin and high burn rate make it a laggard. The selloff underscores a sector-wide shift toward companies with scalable AI infrastructure and proven profitability, leaving edge AI innovators like Ambarella vulnerable to profit-taking.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technicals
• MACD: -0.97 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -2.17, Histogram: 1.20 (momentum waning)
• RSI: 66.62 (overbought but diverging from price)
• Bollinger Bands: $80.88 (upper), $73.93 (middle), $66.99 (lower)—price near lower band
• 200-day SMA: $68.56 (support), 30-day SMA: $75.02 (resistance)

Ambarella’s technicals suggest a bearish near-term outlook, with the 200-day SMA ($68.56) as critical support. The stock’s 12.37% drop has created high-conviction options plays. Two top picks from the chain are:

• AMBA20260116C70 (Call, $70 strike, 1/16/2026):
- IV: 58.76% (mid-range volatility)
- Delta: 0.57 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.29 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.057 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 13,768 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.13% (moderate gearing)
- Payoff at 5% Downside: $0.00 (strike above current price)
- Why: High gamma and liquidity make this ideal for a short-term rebound trade if the 200-day SMA holds.

• AMBA20260116P69 (Put, $69 strike, 1/16/2026):
- IV: 58.59% (mid-range volatility)
- Delta: -0.37 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.01 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.055 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 2,938 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 38.07% (aggressive gearing)
- Payoff at 5% Downside: $3.82 (strike below current price)
- Why: High leverage and gamma position this for a deep pullback if the 69.77–70.19 resistance fails.

Trading Setup: Aggressive short-term traders should target the 69.77–70.19 support cluster. A break below $69.77 could trigger a test of the 66.99 Bollinger Band. For options, AMBA20260116P69 offers a high-reward bearish play, while AMBA20260116C70 is a speculative rebound bet. Avoid long-dated calls until the stock reclaims its 30-day SMA ($75.02).

Backtest Ambarella Stock Performance
The performance of AMBA after a -12% intraday plunge from 2022 to now has shown mixed results in the backtest. While the 3-day win rate is 51.34%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 48.66%. The 30-day win rate is 51.55%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.98%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is potential for recovery, the returns may not always be strong.

Ambarella at a Crossroads: Profitability or Peril
Ambarella’s 12.37% drop signals a critical inflection point. While its CV7 SoC and Developer Zone expansion validate its edge AI leadership, the market demands tangible profitability. With a -21.31% net margin and $2.34M in insider selling, the selloff reflects a loss of confidence in management’s ability to scale. Investors should watch the 69.77–70.19 support zone and the 200-day SMA ($68.56) for directional clues. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s 0.905% gain as a sector leader highlights the gap between innovation and execution. For AMBA, the path forward hinges on closing this gap—fast.