Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Billionaire D.E. Shaw's Bullish Stance on This Stock

When you think Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is going down, when you predict it's going to fall, and even when you nail specific dates for potential weakness, you can't be shocked or horrified. Yet, that's how many people might feel after Fed chair Jay Powell acknowledged that we may have to pull forward hikes in 2023, and St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard suggested that rates could rise as early as late 2022. Obviously, any hint of rate hikes is viewed negatively by the stock market, which is scared of its own shadow. That's why we've melded technicals, which show that we've been down in this period 22 out of 22 years, and Fed fear to suggest that you wait until next week to do some buying.

When the stock market is down, there's always a propensity to want to do something, anything, to react to the decline. But we reiterate that you have to wait, both because of the calendar and what has happened this year, and because there will be more people reacting to the Bullard interview, including strategists, on Monday. When that happens, I think you want to buy tech because tech historically is what works when people are worried about slowing growth.

Slowing growth, you ask? Isn't the economy red hot? To which I say, it was, but the fact is that the imbalances that have hurt us so much are beginning to take care of themselves. The entire commodity complex has had a swoon that reminds us that no matter what you hear, there are markets busy responding, the first being the commodities. That's great news for the consumer as the commodities market is a big reason why the price of food just keeps going up and up.

The surge in chemical pricing because of superstorm Uri had been a major thorn in the side of the consumer. But that's changing, too. A bunch of new plants are coming on line, and I think that's going to bring down pricing. That's the case historically, even in boom times. Lumber, soy, corn, copper, you name it, it's going down. The job's being done strictly through jawboning and the process by which we get used to a rate hike before we have one. That way, when we get one, nothing happens, no surprise, no giant sell-off. The sell-off is now.

Let's say you don't believe me. Let's say you think that all of the 22 out of 22 times this market's been down is all hocus pocus. Then I offer you Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN). I think this company's Prime Days, June 21st and 22nd, will show you how strong the franchise is post-pandemic. That would be a stock I could see buying. We got a piece of research today from JP Morgan saying that not only is retail going well, and Amazon Web Service amazing, but advertising could produce $28 billion in revenue this year, at an immense profit.



There: you have a catalyst and an incredible data point in a group that's what you are supposed to buy when the economy is slowing down. I give you my blessing to buy it on Monday but only if it is down. Otherwise, just take a pass.