La tesis de crecimiento de Amazon para el año 2026: Escalar la inteligencia artificial y el cloud para capturar un mercado más grande.

The core investment question for Amazon is stark: why has a company with accelerating momentum seen its stock stagnate? The numbers tell the story. In 2025, Amazon's shares gained just barely more than 5%, a figure that trailed the S&P 500's 16% rally. This made it the worst-performing stock among the Magnificent Seven, a group of tech giants whose valuations are typically tied to future growth. The disconnect is even more pronounced when you look at the business itself. That weak stock performance occurred while Amazon's core engines were firing on all cylinders.

The standout was Amazon Web Services. After a period of deceleration, AWS revenue growth accelerated to over 20% in Q3 2025. This reacceleration is critical for a growth investor, signaling that the cloud leader is regaining its footing in a competitive market. It wasn't just the cloud. The entire commerce empire was strong, with advertising revenue surging 24% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, and other segments like online stores and subscriptions hitting recent highs. The business was delivering, but the market's reaction was muted.

Then, in early January, a shift began. Over the past five trading days, the stock has climbed 6.7%. This move is more than a technical bounce; it's a potential signal of a sentiment reset. It suggests that the "mistaken identity" narrative-where the stock's decline convinced investors something was wrong with the business-may finally be unraveling. The market is starting to catch up to the operational reality: Amazon's diverse, high-margin segments are scaling effectively.

For a growth-focused lens, this setup is compelling. The gap between a robust business and a stagnant stock creates a classic opportunity. The recent price action indicates the market is beginning to price in the strength, but the full valuation re-rating may still be ahead, especially if the company can continue to demonstrate leadership in AI and cloud. The question now is whether this is the start of a sustained re-rating or just a temporary correction.

Expanding the TAM: AI, Cloud, and Advertising Growth Engines

Amazon's 2026 thesis hinges on its ability to scale beyond its core retail business and capture a larger share of the world's most valuable digital markets. The company is actively expanding its Total Addressable Market (TAM) through three powerful, high-margin engines: cloud, artificial intelligence, and digital advertising. Each represents a scalable platform where investment today is designed to compound revenue and dominance for years to come.

The cloud engine is the most mature and is now accelerating. After a period of deceleration, Amazon Web Services revenue growth accelerated to more than 20% in Q3 2025, its highest level since the third quarter of 2022. This reacceleration is not a one-quarter bounce but a strategic pivot. It signals that AWS is successfully leveraging its massive scale and technological lead to capture demand for AI infrastructure. The company's $125 billion investment in AI infrastructure is a direct bet on this trend, building the physical capacity to power the next wave of enterprise and developer workloads. This capital expenditure is a growth investment, not a cost center, as it directly expands the company's ability to serve a larger market and generate future revenue.

The advertising business is another high-growth channel that is rapidly maturing. Amazon's advertising revenue has surged to an annualized run rate exceeding $60 billion. This isn't just a large number; it's a scalable, high-margin business that leverages the company's unparalleled data on consumer intent and behavior. As the platform grows, so does its ability to offer more precise, valuable ad inventory, creating a powerful flywheel. For a growth investor, this represents a significant, recurring revenue stream that is largely decoupled from retail cycles and offers superior economics.

Finally, the AI push is where Amazon is attempting to capture the next major secular shift. The company is not just a user of AI but a builder of its infrastructure, with a clear path to profitability. Its investment in Anthropic and ongoing talks with OpenAI for a potential $10 billion investment are strategic moves to own a piece of the AI stack. This isn't just about internal efficiency; it's about creating a new, high-margin B2B service. As Jim Cramer noted, this service is "going to be wildly profitable very soon." By integrating AI deeply into its retail operations-like the improved customer service tool Rufus-and building its own AI chips, Amazon is demonstrating how these investments can directly enhance its core businesses while also creating new commercial opportunities.

The bottom line is that Amazon is systematically expanding its TAM. It is moving from a retailer to a platform provider, offering cloud capacity, AI tools, and advertising reach. The scalability of these businesses is underpinned by their high margins and network effects. The recent stock rally suggests the market is starting to see this. For the growth investor, the opportunity is to own a company that is not just growing its current segments but is actively building the infrastructure to dominate the next digital frontier.

Financial Scalability and Valuation Implications

The growth thesis must now be measured against financial reality. Wall Street's 2026 forecasts paint a picture of steady, if not spectacular, expansion. Analysts project 2026 revenue of approximately $790 billion, implying about 11% growth from the prior year. More importantly, the engine for that growth is expected to accelerate dramatically. AWS growth is projected to exceed 30%, a significant step up from the over 20% acceleration seen in the third quarter of 2025. This divergence-modest top-line growth but explosive cloud expansion-is the core of the investment case. It suggests the company is scaling a high-margin platform while its retail and other segments mature.

Yet this growth comes with a near-term cost. The massive capital expenditure required to build out AI infrastructure is a direct drag on earnings. In 2025, Amazon plowed $125 billion into CapEx, with increases expected in 2026. This spending translates into higher depreciation expenses, which are "crushing near-term earnings" and keeping the reported profit growth in check. The 11% projected EPS growth to $7.86 in 2026 reflects this investment cycle. For a growth investor, this is a classic trade-off: sacrificing current earnings for future scalability and market share capture.

This sets up the valuation puzzle. Amazon trades at a trailing P/E of 32 times, a premium that is not justified by today's earnings but is a bet on tomorrow's. The multiple reflects the market's pricing in the anticipated acceleration from AWS and the long-term profitability of its AI investments. The disconnect between the stock's 5% 2025 gain and the 16% S&P 500 rally is stark, but it also creates a potential re-rating opportunity if execution meets expectations.

Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with every major 2026 price target calling for a rally. The consensus points to at least a 15% upside, with the highest target from Evercore ISI implying a 39% rally to $335. That target represents a 45% premium from recent levels. This significant upside is predicated on the successful scaling of the cloud and AI platforms, which are designed to drive earnings acceleration in 2027 and 2028. The bottom line is that Amazon's valuation is high, but it is a premium for a company that is systematically expanding its TAM and investing heavily to dominate the next digital wave. The financial scalability is there; the market is simply waiting to see if the promised earnings ramp-up materializes.

Catalysts, Risks, and Key Metrics to Watch

For a growth investor, the path forward is defined by specific catalysts to watch and risks to manage. The near-term setup is one of high conviction meeting tangible milestones. The resolution of Amazon's potential $10 billion investment in Anthropic and its talks with OpenAI is a prime catalyst. A deal would solidify Amazon's position in the AI infrastructure stack, directly funding its $125 billion build-out and validating the narrative that its AI investments are a strategic asset, not just a cost. This could act as a powerful narrative driver, especially if it leads to a new, high-margin B2B service, as Jim Cramer suggests is "going to be wildly profitable very soon."

Yet the path isn't without friction. A key risk is that intense competition in e-commerce and cloud could slow market share gains, despite Amazon's defensive moat. The company's massive scale and integrated platform provide a durable advantage, but rivals are investing heavily too. The growth thesis assumes Amazon can continue to out-invest and out-innovate, capturing the expanding TAM without a significant price war eroding margins. This competitive pressure is the most direct threat to the projected acceleration in AWS and advertising growth.

To gauge progress, investors should monitor two key metrics in upcoming quarterly reports. First, the AWS growth rate is the bellwether for the cloud engine's health. Sustained growth above 30% would confirm the reacceleration is structural, not cyclical. Second, the momentum in advertising revenue, which has surged to an annualized run rate exceeding $60 billion, must continue. This high-margin business is a critical driver of overall profitability and a sign of platform strength. Any deceleration here would signal a potential saturation point or competitive headwind.

The bottom line is that the growth thesis is actionable. The catalysts are clear and near-term, from potential AI deals to cloud performance. The risks are competitive and executional. By focusing on these specific metrics-AWS growth and advertising momentum-investors can track whether the company is successfully scaling its engines and justifying the premium valuation. The recent stock rally suggests the market is starting to believe, but the next leg up will depend on these quarterly data points confirming the narrative.