Amazon, 2026: La apuesta por la infraestructura de IA y la curva S de la rentabilidad

Amazon Web Services is entering a classic exponential phase, transitioning from a capacity-constrained growth engine to a profit powerhouse. The core investment thesis is that AWS is now building the fundamental rails for the next computing paradigm, and its massive infrastructure investments are setting the stage for a multi-year acceleration in both revenue and earnings.

The growth trajectory is reaccelerating. In the third quarter, AWS revenue grew , its fastest rate in multiple years. This is not a one-quarter bounce but the start of a new trend, with Wall Street projecting . The catalyst is a deliberate and unprecedented capacity build-out. To meet soaring AI demand, . In the past year alone, , more than any other hyperscaler. Each gigawatt of this new capacity is projected to generate approximately $3 billion in annual revenue. This creates a clear, .

This infrastructure expansion is not just about scale; it's about control and cost leadership. AWS is vertically integrating its compute stack with custom silicon, a move that directly attacks the price-performance bottleneck for AI. The upcoming , powered by the company's first 3nm AI chip, . This technology is already being deployed by major partners, . By undercutting competitors on price-performance, AWS is not only capturing more AI workloads but also locking in higher-margin, long-term customer relationships.

The bottom line is a company executing a multi-year S-curve. The first phase-building the physical capacity-is now in full swing, with the market only beginning to price in the revenue potential of that new power. The second phase-monetizing that capacity with superior, lower-cost technology-is just ramping up. For investors, the setup is clear: AWS is transitioning from a growth story to a profit engine, with the infrastructure investments of 2025 and 2026 designed to drive exponential earnings growth in 2027 and beyond.

The Profitability Flywheel: Advertising, Automation, and Margin Expansion

Amazon's path to a valuation re-rate in 2026 hinges on a powerful flywheel: high-margin segments accelerating while operational efficiencies drive down costs. The company's stock has underperformed in 2025, but the underlying business is building a new profit engine that Wall Street is only beginning to price in.

The most potent lever is advertising. This segment is the fastest-growing division, with , . , surpassing YouTube. Crucially, advertising operates at , . . This isn't just growth; it's a margin expansion catalyst that directly boosts operating income.

Complementing this is a massive automation push that promises to cut costs at scale. Amazon plans to replace hundreds of thousands of warehouse jobs with robots, with advanced systems like ' . . This isn't a distant dream; it's a near-term efficiency gain that will flow directly to the bottom line, further widening the gap between revenue growth and cost growth.

The market is finally starting to recognize this shift. Amazon's forward P/E of ~30x is now comparable to its peers. This is the critical inflection. For years, the stock traded at a premium, meaning business gains were often offset by valuation. Now, with the multiple anchored to the group, the stock price can rise directly with business performance. If operating profit growth accelerates-driven by AWS, advertising, and automation-the multiple can hold or even expand.

The bottom line is a self-reinforcing cycle. Advertising revenue growth funds more automation investment, which cuts fulfillment costs, boosting margins across the board. This flywheel is what will drive the earnings acceleration needed for a re-rating. The stock's 2025 slump has created a window where this operational story can finally be priced in.

Catalysts, Risks, and the Path to $300

The path to a $300 share price for Amazon is defined by two powerful forces: the execution of its cloud growth engine and the resolution of a looming legal overhang. The primary catalyst is AWS's ability to fulfill its . This massive order book, representing committed future revenue, is the linchpin of the stock's re-rating narrative. As AWS works through this backlog, its capital investments in infrastructure and new processors like Trainium3 will convert into accelerated revenue growth, . This operational execution is the core of the S-curve for Amazon's AI and cloud business.

The key near-term risk is a structural change to the company's operations. A U.S. federal judge has set an for the FTC antitrust lawsuit accusing Amazon of operating an illegal monopoly. The outcome of this case could force divestitures or other structural changes that would directly impact the company's core marketplace and logistics businesses. This legal uncertainty creates a persistent overhang that could derail the stock's trajectory if the company is found to have violated antitrust laws.

The current valuation gap presents a clear opportunity. , it sits below the most pessimistic analyst target of . . This setup suggests the market is pricing in a significant risk premium for the antitrust case and potential execution delays, leaving room for a re-rating if those concerns are resolved or if AWS's backlog conversion exceeds expectations.

The bottom line is a binary setup. The catalyst is a proven, high-margin growth engine with a massive backlog to monetize. The risk is a legal verdict that could force a fundamental business change. For investors, the stock's position below the lowest target indicates the market is already discounting a worst-case scenario. The path to $300, therefore, hinges on AWS executing its growth cycle while the antitrust case remains in the legal system, not the courtroom.