Alumis (ALMS) Soars 98% on Groundbreaking Psoriasis Trial Results—What’s Next for This Biotech Powerhouse?

Summary
• Alumis (ALMS) surges 98.3% intraday to $16.48, erasing a 33% gap down from its 52-week high of $22.30
• Phase 3 trials show 65% of patients achieved PASI 90 and 40% PASI 100 at Week 24 with envudeucitinib
• Turnover skyrockets to 62.3 million shares, 102.7% of its average daily volume
• FDA NDA filing expected H2 2026, with LUMUS SLE trial data due Q3 2026

Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS) is rewriting its narrative after a historic 98.3% intraday rally, driven by blockbuster Phase 3 trial results for its TYK2 inhibitor envudeucitinib. The stock’s meteoric rise—from a 2026 low of $15.27 to a 52-week high of $22.30—has triggered a frenzy in options pits and redefined its position in the biotech sector. With a dynamic PE ratio of -8.58 and a 52-week range of $2.76 to $22.30, the stock’s volatility and technical indicators signal a pivotal inflection point.

Phase 3 Trial Triumph Ignites Biotech Bull Run
Alumis’ 98.3% intraday surge stems from the Phase 3 ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials of envudeucitinib, which demonstrated 65% PASI 90 and 40% PASI 100 skin clearance at Week 24 in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis patients. The drug outperformed apremilast and placebo with rapid onset of action (PASI 90 separation by Week 4) and a safety profile consistent with Phase 2 data. The FDA NDA filing in H2 2026 and LUMUS SLE trial data in Q3 2026 further amplify near-term catalysts. Insider buying by executives and institutional investors, including $9.07 million in purchases by Srinivas Akkaraju, underscores conviction in the drug’s commercial potential.

Biotech Sector Mixed as Alumis Defies the Pack
While the biotech sector remains fragmented, Alumis’ rally is driven by its own catalysts. Sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rose 2.93% on strong earnings, but most peers underperformed due to regulatory uncertainties and mid-stage trial setbacks. Alumis’ envudeucitinib, with its differentiated TYK2 inhibition mechanism and potential to compete with Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) Tremfya and Protagonist’s (PTGX) pexibartire, positions it as a standalone winner in the psoriasis space. The stock’s 98.3% move far outpaces sector averages, reflecting its unique value proposition.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on ALMS’ Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• Technical Indicators: 200-day average: $5.28 (far below); RSI: 20.11 (oversold); MACD: 0.37 (bullish divergence); Bollinger Bands: $8.95–$12.74 (price at 16.48, outside range)
• ETF/Options Focus: No leveraged ETF data available; focus on options with high gamma and moderate delta

Top Options Contracts:
• ALMS20260116P15 (Put, $15 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- Implied Volatility: 174.53% (high)
- LVR: 19.47% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.3157 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0566 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0709 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 157,726 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (17.30): $2.30 per contract. This put offers downside protection with high gamma to benefit from volatility.
• ALMS20260116P16 (Put, $16 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- Implied Volatility: 153.09% (high)
- LVR: 11.41% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.3958 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0467 (time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0876 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 229,360 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (17.30): $1.30 per contract. This put balances leverage and liquidity for a volatile short-term trade.

Trading Setup: Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $22.30 and the 200-day MA at $5.28. The RSI at 20.11 suggests oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram (-0.506) indicates bearish momentum. Aggressive bulls may consider ALMS20260116C18 (Call, $18 strike) for a 5% upside scenario, but the put contracts offer better risk-reward for a volatile biotech play. If the stock breaks above $17.30, consider rolling into higher-strike calls.

Backtest Alumis Stock Performance
The backtest of ALMS's performance following a 98% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals mixed results. While the stock experienced a significant maximum return of 12.55% on January 6, 2026, the overall win rate and returns over various time frames suggest that such a large increase was not consistently sustained.

Alumis at a Crossroads: NDA Filing and Volatility as the New Normal
Alumis’ 98.3% intraday surge is a testament to the power of clinical data in biotech, but sustainability hinges on its ability to maintain momentum ahead of the FDA NDA filing in H2 2026. The stock’s technicals—oversold RSI, divergent MACD, and price outside Bollinger Bands—suggest a volatile near-term path. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $22.30 and the 200-day MA at $5.28 as critical benchmarks. Sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rose 2.93%, but Alumis’ catalyst-driven rally makes it a standout. Action: Buy the ALMS20260116P15 put for downside protection and watch for a breakout above $17.30 to trigger a call roll.