Alumis (ALMS) Surges 8.68% on Breakthrough Psoriasis Data and Analyst Upgrades – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Alumis (ALMS) rockets 8.68% to $24.03, hitting its 52-week high of $24.83
• Insider buying by directors and Foresite Labs adds $17M in fresh capital
• Analysts upgrade price targets to $50, with a $37.67 average consensus

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) is surging on a perfect storm of clinical validation, institutional backing, and analyst optimism. The stock’s 8.68% intraday gain—driven by positive phase 3 trial results for its TYK2 inhibitor Envudeucitinib and a $17M insider buying spree—has ignited momentum. With a 52-week high of $24.83 and a dynamic PE of -14.62, the stock is now trading at a 92.7% premium to its current level. The biotech sector’s broader rally, led by Amgen’s 0.4% rise, adds further tailwinds.

Clinical Breakthrough and Institutional Confidence Fuel ALMS Surge
Alumis’ meteoric rise stems from two catalysts: groundbreaking phase 3 trial results for Envudeucitinib and a $17M insider buying spree. The drug achieved 65% PASI 90 and 40% PASI 100 in plaque psoriasis patients, outperforming competitors like Bristol Myers Squibb’s Sotyktu. This clinical validation, combined with insider purchases by directors Srinivas Akkaraju and James Tananbaum (adding 46.5% and 7.8% to their stakes, respectively) and Foresite Labs’ $7M investment, signals strong conviction. Analysts at Oppenheimer and Morgan Stanley have raised price targets to $50 and $33, respectively, while the $37.67 consensus reflects a 92.7% upside from current levels.

Biotech Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Alumis Outpaces Peers
The biotech sector is rallying on broader optimism, with Amgen (AMGN) up 0.4% and JPMorgan Healthcare Conference-driven deals. However, Alumis’ 8.68% surge far outpaces sector averages. While peers like Novartis and Biogen focus on gene therapy and immunology, Alumis’ TYK2 inhibitor niche—targeting a $200M+ psoriasis market—offers unique differentiation. The stock’s 4.52% turnover rate and 81.75 RSI (overbought) suggest strong short-term momentum, contrasting with the sector’s mixed fundamentals.

Options Playbook: Leveraging ALMS’ Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• MACD: 2.90 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 1.83, Histogram: 1.08 (expanding)
• RSI: 81.75 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $21.71 (upper), $13.15 (middle), $4.60 (lower)
• 200D MA: $5.74 (far below current price), 52W High: $24.83 (key resistance)

Alumis’ technicals scream short-term bullish continuation. The RSI’s overbought level and MACD’s expanding histogram suggest momentum is intact. Key levels to watch: $24.83 (52W high), $21.89 (intraday low), and $20 (psychological support). For leveraged exposure, consider ALMS20260220C24 and ALMS20260220C25, which balance gamma sensitivity and liquidity.

Top Option 1: ALMS20260220C24
• Code: ALMS20260220C24, Type: Call, Strike: $24, Exp: 2026-02-20
• IV: 107.68% (high volatility), Leverage: 6.93%, Delta: 0.5855 (moderate), Theta: -0.05497 (rapid decay), Gamma: 0.04626 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $205,137
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($25.23), payoff = $1.23/share. This contract offers aggressive leverage with high gamma to capitalize on price swings.

Top Option 2: ALMS20260220C25
• Code: ALMS20260220C25, Type: Call, Strike: $25, Exp: 2026-02-20
• IV: 105.19% (high volatility), Leverage: 8.08%, Delta: 0.53696 (moderate), Theta: -0.05404 (rapid decay), Gamma: 0.04826 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $6,369
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($25.23), payoff = $0.23/share. This contract balances leverage with liquidity, ideal for a controlled bullish bet.

Aggressive bulls should target ALMS20260220C24 into a break above $24.83.

Backtest Alumis Stock Performance
The backtest of ALMS's performance following a 9% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 48.11%, the 10-Day win rate is 43.78%, and the 30-Day win rate is 50.27%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 14.29%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that ALMS can capitalize on intraday surges with favorable outcomes.

Alumis’ Bull Run Gains Institutional Momentum – Watch $24.83 Breakout for Next Leg Higher
Alumis’ 8.68% surge is fueled by clinical validation, insider buying, and analyst upgrades. The stock’s 81.75 RSI and MACD divergence suggest momentum remains intact, but the overbought level warns of near-term volatility. Investors should monitor the $24.83 52-week high as a critical breakout threshold. If ALMS clears this, the $37.67 consensus target becomes a realistic target. Meanwhile, the biotech sector’s rally—led by Amgen’s 0.4% gain—provides a favorable backdrop. Act now: Buy ALMS20260220C24 if $24.83 breaks, or short-term bulls can target $25.23 for a 5% upside.