¿Están las altcoins formando, en silencio, una base estructural antes del superciclo de 2026?

The question of whether altcoins are quietly building a structural base for a 2026 supercycle hinges on two critical lenses: macro-liquidity shifts and technical base formation. As 2025 drew to a close, the interplay between central bank policies, institutional capital flows, and on-chain metrics painted a nuanced picture of altcoin markets. While challenges persist, early signals suggest a potential inflection point.

Macro-Liquidity Shifts: Central Banks and Capital Reallocation

Central bank policies in late 2025 remained a dominant force in shaping altcoin liquidity. The Federal Reserve's restrictive stance in October 2025 triggered a sharp selloff in altcoins, with Internet Computer (ICP) hitting a historical low of $2.23. However, the Fed's mid-November signals of policy easing catalyzed a 78.9% surge in ICP within days, underscoring the sector's hypersensitivity to monetary shifts according to market analysis. This volatility reflects the broader macroeconomic context: global liquidity expansion post-COVID had ended, leading to tighter funding conditions and divergent central bank policies. Japan's exit from ultra-loose monetary policy, for instance, amplified risk-off sentiment in leveraged crypto positions, further pressuring altcoin liquidity as market analysis indicates.

Bitcoin's normalization as a financial infrastructure asset-bolstered by ETF approvals and institutional adoption-created a structural floor for its price while siphoning capital away from altcoins. By Q4 2025, Bitcoin's dominance had peaked at 65.38% in May but began a gradual decline, signaling capital rotation into altcoins according to Flipster analysis. A drop below 62% in Bitcoin dominance, historically a precursor to altcoin seasons, appeared imminent. However, altcoins struggled to capitalize on this trend due to liquidity exhaustion and narrative saturation, with meme coins acting as liquidity traps rather than value creators as market data shows.

Technical Base Formation: On-Chain Metrics and Market Structure

Technical and on-chain indicators in late 2025 revealed mixed signals. Ethereum's Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio reached 1,041, suggesting undervaluation and aligning with altcoin season dynamics according to CoinMarketCap data. Similarly, Ethereum's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicated a balanced market state, reducing the risk of sudden supply shocks from underwater positions as Blockscholes research shows. These metrics, historically correlated with recoveries, hinted at structural consolidation.

Bitcoin dominance trends further supported this narrative. As of late 2025, Bitcoin's dominance had declined to levels near 62%, a threshold historically associated with altcoin outperformance according to Flipster analysis. Concurrently, altcoin trading volume and liquidity shifts were closely monitored as indicators of momentum. Emerging narratives in AI, DeFi, and blockchain infrastructure added speculative fuel to this rotation as market analysis suggests.

However, altcoins faced headwinds. Funding rates for high-profile tokens like Solana (SOL) turned bearish, with a 1% drop in the last 7 days compared to Bitcoin's positive returns. This reflected stronger short exposure in perpetual swap markets, signaling a consolidation phase according to Blockscholes research. Additionally, aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) analysis revealed increased retail sensitivity to volatility and a reluctance to fund speculative narratives, as evidenced by reduced open interest in altcoin perpetual swaps as market data shows.

Structural Imbalances and the Path to 2026

Despite these signs, structural imbalances persist. Institutional demand for Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset has created a capital vacuum for altcoins. Ethereum's dominance fell to 12.1% in Q4 2025, while stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) absorbed liquidity, with stablecoin supply reaching $263B and RWAs expanding to $24B according to Glassnode data. This environment, coupled with macroeconomic repricing risks, has left altcoins in a fragmented state.

Yet, the stage is set for a potential 2026 supercycle. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) accumulated 42k BTC in December 2025, signaling institutional "buy the dip" strategies as on-chain data shows. If central banks pivot toward easing cycles and altcoin narratives evolve beyond saturated themes, the sector could see renewed capital inflows. Crucially, the maturation of regulated execution venues-such as ETF trading volumes surging to $5B/day-suggests growing institutional participation, which could stabilize altcoin liquidity according to Glassnode analysis.

Conclusion

Altcoins are quietly forming a structural base, but the path to a 2026 supercycle remains contingent on macroeconomic clarity and narrative innovation. While technical indicators like NVT and MVRV ratios suggest consolidation, macro-liquidity shifts and institutional dynamics will ultimately determine whether this base translates into a sustained bull run. For now, the market is in a delicate balancing act: waiting for the Fed's next move, the maturation of altcoin narratives, and the rekindling of risk-on sentiment.