Altcoin ETF Approval Odds: Litecoin Leads with 90%, XRP Lagging at 65%

In a recent analysis, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have ranked the approval chances for altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on XRP, Dogecoin, Solana, and Litecoin. Their findings suggest that Litecoin ETFs have a 90% chance of approval, while XRP ETFs lag behind at 65%. The analysts' assessment is based on various factors, including regulatory filings, market demand, and the SEC's stance on specific cryptocurrencies.



Litecoin ETF: 90% Approval Chance

Litecoin ETFs have the highest approval chance among the altcoin ETFs analyzed by Bloomberg. This high probability is attributed to several factors:

1. Clear regulatory path: Litecoin's S-1 and 19b-4 filings have been submitted and acknowledged by the SEC, indicating that the regulatory process for Litecoin ETFs is well underway.
2. Commodity classification: The SEC likely classifies Litecoin (LTC) as a commodity, similar to Bitcoin. This classification makes it easier for the SEC to approve an ETF based on Litecoin.
3. Historical precedent: Litecoin was launched in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, and it has a well-established track record. Its similarity to Bitcoin, which has already been approved for ETFs, may work in its favor.

XRP ETF: 65% Approval Chance

XRP ETFs have the lowest approval chance among the altcoin ETFs analyzed by Bloomberg. The ongoing legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC is a significant factor contributing to the lower approval chance. Until this litigation is resolved, the SEC may be hesitant to approve an XRP ETF. Additionally, the SEC's classification of XRP as a security, rather than a commodity, could further hinder its ETF approval process.

Dogecoin and Solana ETFs: 75% and 70% Approval Chances, Respectively

Dogecoin and Solana ETFs have approval chances of 75% and 70%, respectively. While the SEC has not yet acknowledged the 19b-4 filings for DOGE ETFs, the analysts believe that the approval chances could improve if the SEC addresses the security and commodity implications of ongoing lawsuits. The SEC's classification of these altcoins as commodities, like Litecoin and Bitcoin, may also contribute to their higher approval chances.

In conclusion, Bloomberg ETF analysts have ranked the approval chances for altcoin ETFs, with Litecoin leading at 90% and XRP lagging at 65%. The analysts' assessment is based on various factors, including regulatory filings, market demand, and the SEC's stance on specific cryptocurrencies. As the SEC continues to review and decide on pending ETF applications, investors and stakeholders should stay informed about the latest developments in the altcoin ETF landscape.