Alphabet (GOOGL) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Call OI Surpasses Puts, Whale Buys at $260 Call and $235 Put Highlight Strategic Entry Points
Escrito porAinvest
viernes, 26 de septiembre de 2025, 2:22 pm ET2 min de lectura
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- Current Price Action: GOOGL trades at $246.69, up 0.37% with volume at 11.26M, near 30D support/resistance ($251.40–$252.50).
- Options Imbalance: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.72 (calls dominate), with $250–$260 calls and $230–$240 puts showing heavy positioning.
- Block Trade Alert: Whale buys 1,000 $260 calls (GOOGL20251219C260) and 500 $235 puts (GOOGL20260320P235), signaling strategic hedging.
- News Catalyst: Antitrust ruling removes breakup risk, EU scrutiny and AI partnerships drive long-term optimism.
The core insight: GOOGL’s options market and technicals align on a bullish bias, with call dominance and block trades at key strikes suggesting a high probability of a breakout above $250. Short-term volatility from EU investigations and AI lawsuits could test $240 support, but long-term fundamentals (AI, cloud, U.K. investments) justify a bullish stance.
OTM Options & Whale Trade Signals
GOOGL’s options chain reveals a stark imbalance: call open interest (1.88M) outpaces puts (1.36M) by 38%, with the put/call ratio at 0.72—a classic bullish setup. For Friday expiration, $250 (7,173 OI) and $260 (7,636 OI) calls dominate, while $230 (8,501 OI) and $240 (7,213 OI) puts show heavy bearish positioning. This suggests traders are pricing in a $250–$260 target for a near-term rally but hedging against a pullback to $230–$240.
Notable block trades amplify this narrative. A 1,000-lot buy of $260 calls (GOOGL20251219C260) and a 500-lot purchase of $235 puts (GOOGL20260320P235) indicate institutional activity. The call buy aligns with the $260 OI peak, while the put purchase suggests hedging against a potential $235–$240 correction. These moves signal confidence in a bullish bias but caution against short-term volatility.
News-Driven Context: Legal Clarity vs. Regulatory Headwinds
GOOGL’s recent antitrust victory (avoiding forced breakup of Chrome/Android) has erased a major overhang, with shares surging 9.14% and market cap hitting $3.1T. Analysts at Wedbush and Citigroup have raised price targets to $280, citing AI and cloud growth. However, EU investigations into financial scams and FTC probes into ad practices introduce near-term risks. The Google-Magnite lawsuit over ad monopolism could also pressure the stock if regulatory actions escalate.
Investor sentiment is split: while the antitrust ruling validates Google’s business model, regulatory scrutiny and AI-related lawsuits (e.g., Rolling Stone’s IP dispute) could trigger short-term volatility. The key is whether the market views these as temporary hurdles or structural risks. Given the $7B U.K. investment and $58B Google Cloud backlog, long-term optimism remains intact.
Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging
For Options Traders:
- Bullish Play: Buy GOOGL20251219C260 (strike $260, expiring Dec 19) at $13.55/share. With $260 as the top OI level and a whale buy, this call offers leverage if GOOGL breaks above $250. Target: $275 (50% move from current price).
- Bearish Hedge: Buy GOOGL20260320P235 (strike $235, expiring March 20) at $720K turnover. This put protects against a $235–$240 pullback, aligning with the EU regulatory risk timeline.
For Stock Traders:
- Entry Near $250: If GOOGL holds above $250 (30D support), consider buying at $250–$252.50 with a stop below $245 (lower Bollinger Band). Target: $270–$275, leveraging the $260 call OI and AI/cloud momentum.
- Short-Term Play: Sell GOOGL at $249.42 (intraday high) if it fails to break above $250, with a stop at $246.04 (intraday low).
Volatility on the Horizon
GOOGL’s technicals and options activity point to a bullish bias, with the $250–$260 range as a critical breakout zone. While EU investigations and AI lawsuits could trigger dips to $230–$240, the long-term narrative—$7B U.K. investments, $58B cloud backlog, and AI-driven ad growth—supports a $270+ target. Traders should balance call exposure for upside with puts to hedge regulatory risks. The coming weeks will test whether GOOGL can sustain its $3T market cap amid a volatile regulatory landscape.
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