Alphabet (GOOGL) Options Signal $335 Bullish Bias: How to Position for AI-Driven Breakouts Amid Regulatory Risks

• Current price: $316.01, down 0.34% from previous close
• Options data shows 25% more call open interest than puts (ratio: 0.795)
• Block trades reveal $1.35M call buy at $260 strike ahead of Dec 19 expiry

Here’s the big picture: GOOGL is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term profit-taking and long-term AI optimism. The stock sits just below its 30-day moving average at $296.35, but options traders are betting heavily on a $335+ move by December 19. Let’s break down why this matters for your portfolio.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls Outmuscle Puts at Key Strikes

Options market participants are clearly leaning bullish. For this Friday’s expiry (Dec 12), the top call open interest is at $330 (13,952 contracts), while puts peak at $300 (11,739). But the real story emerges in next Friday’s chain (Dec 19): calls at $335 ($24,425 OI) and $350 ($16,293) dwarf put activity. This suggests institutional players expect a meaningful rebound before year-end.

The block trades add intrigue. A $1.35M buy of GOOGL20251219C260 (Dec 19 $260 call) signals confidence in a low-cost entry if the stock dips. Meanwhile, two $240 put trades (GOOGL20260116P240) hint at long-term hedging by big players. The risk? If the stock fails to break above $318.95 (intraday high), the bearish RSI (71.5) and MACD histogram (-0.67) could trigger profit-taking.

News That Could Tip the Scales: AI Expansion vs. EU Scrutiny

Google’s recent moves are a mixed bag. The sub-$5 AI Plus plan in India and $462M geothermal investment show aggressive expansion, while the EU antitrust probe adds regulatory friction. But the real catalyst? Gemini 3’s TPU-powered cost cuts and Waymo’s robotaxi progress. Analysts at Citizens see $340 as a realistic target, and S&P’s multi-year cloud deal adds $1B+ in potential revenue.

Here’s the catch: While AI optimism is justified, the EU investigation could delay monetization. Retail traders should watch the $314.68 support level—if it breaks, puts like GOOGL20251219P310 (Dec 19 $310) might gain traction. But if the stock holds above $304.32 (middle Bollinger band), the bulls have a clear path to $340.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging

For options traders:

• Bullish play: Buy GOOGL20251219C335 (Dec 19 $335 call) if price breaks above $318.95. Target $340 (7.6% gain) with stop-loss at $304.32.
• Bearish hedge: Buy GOOGL20251219P310 (Dec 19 $310 put) if price drops below $314.68. Target $300 (3.2% gain) with stop-loss at $318.95.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $304.32 (middle Bollinger band) with a $340 target. Use $284.26 (30D support) as a hard stop.
• Short-term swing trade: Buy on a pullback to $314.68 with a $327.5 target (using Dec 12 $327.5 call as a leveraged play).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Regulatory Headwinds

The next two weeks will test GOOGL’s resolve. A breakout above $318.95 could validate the 100D moving average ($247) as a floor, while a drop below $304.32 might force a retest of $270.82 (lower Bollinger band). Either way, the options market is pricing in a $335+ finish by December 19. Position yourself with defined risk setups—this stock isn’t going sideways forever.