Alphabet (GOOGL) Options Signal $300 Support Battle: Bull Call Spread vs. Put Hedge Playbook

• GOOGL surges 1.8% to $302.07 amid oversold RSI (28.27) and bearish engulfing candle
• Options market shows 61% more open interest in calls than puts, but heavy put OI at $290 hints at downside caution
• Block trades reveal $1.35M call buy at $260 strike and $720K put purchase at $235 for March 2026

Here's the deal: GOOGL is dancing on a tightrope between short-term bearish momentum and long-term AI-driven optimism. The options market is screaming about a critical $300 support level battle - and you need to pick your side before Friday's expiry.

Bear Call OI vs. Put Pressure: Where Institutional Money is Moving

The options chain tells two conflicting stories. This Friday's data shows massive call open interest at $310 ($14,931 contracts) and $330 ($16,167) strikes, suggesting smart money is pricing in a post-earnings pop. But don't ignore the puts: $290 strike puts have 22,351 open contracts, forming a gravity well for potential breakdowns.

The block trades add intrigue. That $1.35M call purchase at the $260 strike (GOOGL20251219C260) shows big players are hedging for a post-earnings rally. Meanwhile, the $720K put buy at $235 (GOOGL20260320P235) indicates long-term bearishness. Think of it like a chess game - bulls are setting up for a quick checkmate, while bears are building a fortress.

News That Could Tilt the Scales

Alphabet's SpaceX stake (now worth $100B+) and AI-first strategy are long-term tailwinds. But that 3.14% pre-market drop shows investors aren't buying the narrative just yet. The regulatory risks and valuation concerns mentioned in the news could keep the stock range-bound until Q1 2026.

Here's the twist: The recent AI-driven revenue growth (23.7% cloud margins) and Starlink partnerships create asymmetric upside potential. But if the Fed's fiscal policy moves faster than expected, we could see a sharp correction toward the 200D MA at $210.87.

Actionable Trade Setups for Today

For options traders:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy GOOGL20251219C310 ($310 call) and sell GOOGL20251219C330 ($330 call). This captures upside potential if price breaks above $310 while capping risk.
• Put Hedge: Buy GOOGL20251219P290 ($290 put) if price dips below $301.72 (today's open). Protects against a breakdown to the 30D support at $284.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $299.23 (intraday low) with target at 302.59 (30D MA). Stop-loss below $299.23 triggers a shift to defensive puts.
• Aggressive play: Buy on a break above $303.96 (intraday high) with $307.50 profit target, leveraging the $310 call OI as a momentum catalyst.

Volatility on the Horizon

The coming days will test GOOGL's resolve. With Bollinger Bands showing the upper bound at $331.94 and lower at $291.81, we're in a classic trading range squeeze. The key is watching how the $300 level holds - a close above 302.59 (30D MA) could trigger a multi-week rally, while a breakdown below 299.23 opens the door to 283.93 support.

Remember: This is a chess match, not a sprint. The block traders are playing for March 2026, but today's options expiry forces our hand. Position yourself to capitalize on whichever way the market decides to break.