Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential Amid $315 Put Sweep and AI-Driven Momentum

• GOOG down 1.12% at $317.02, trading below its 30D MA but above key long-term averages
• Call open interest dominates (1151K vs. 850K puts), with heavy concentration at $325–$340 strikes
• $12M bearish put sweep at $315 strike highlights near-term support/resistance tension
• Q3 earnings beat, Meta TPU deal rumors, and Gemini AI outperformance drive long-term optimism

The Bullish-Call Surge and Strategic Hedging Playbook

Options market sentiment is split between aggressive bullish positioning and cautious hedging. This Friday’s call open interest peaks at $325 (8,069 contracts) and $330 (7,500), suggesting institutional bets on a rebound toward the upper Bollinger Band ($331.50). Meanwhile, the $315 put sweep—8,642 contracts at this strike—acts like a safety net for downside risk. Think of it as a tug-of-war: bulls are stacking chips on the table for a breakout, while bears are buying insurance against a pullback.

The block trades add intrigue. A $1.14M call sweep at the $235 strike (expiring Sept 19) and a $467K buy call at $245 (same expiry) hint at long-term positioning. These older contracts suggest investors are locking in gains from AI-driven growth, not just short-term volatility.

AI-Driven Momentum vs. Short-Term Volatility: A Trader’s Dilemma

Alphabet’s news flow is a mixed bag. The rumored Meta TPU deal and Gemini 3’s outperformance validate its AI ambitions, but the $12M put sweep at $315 shows investors aren’t ignoring near-term risks. Here’s the catch: while Q3 earnings ($102.55B revenue) and cloud growth justify optimism, the stock’s 66% YTD surge has created a valuation ceiling. The market is pricing in a “AI re-rating” but hedging against macroeconomic headwinds before year-end.

Actionable Trade Setups for GOOG

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Bull Call Spread: Buy GOOG20251205C325 (strike $325, expiry this Friday) and sell GOOG20251205C330. The $325 strike has 8,069 OI, indicating strong liquidity. Target a $325–$330 range if the stock rebounds above its 30D MA ($288.98).
• Put Hedge: Buy GOOG20251205P315 (strike $315, expiry this Friday) to protect against a drop below key support. The $12M sweep at this level makes it a high-probability floor.

For stock traders:

• Entry Near $315: If GOOG holds above $315 (supported by the put sweep), consider buying dips toward $315.60 (today’s low). Target $325 if the stock breaks above its 100D MA ($242.30).
• Breakout Play: If the stock closes above $323.09 (today’s high), push entry to $325 with a stop-loss at $315. The 200D MA ($205.16) is a distant floor, but near-term focus is on $315–$330.

Volatility on the Horizon

Alphabet’s options activity tells a story of confidence and caution. The call-heavy OI at $325–$340 suggests a breakout attempt is brewing, but the $315 put sweep acts as a psychological anchor. With the Meta TPU deal potentially materializing in Q4 and Gemini 3 gaining traction, the long-term trend remains bullish. However, short-term traders should watch for a test of $315—break below that, and the 200D MA ($205.16) becomes a concern. For now, the stock is dancing on a tightrope between AI euphoria and macroeconomic reality. Where it lands depends on whether bulls can reclaim $325 before year-end.