Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Target $325+ as Call Open Interest Surges at Key Strikes

• Current price near $313, down 0.24% from prior close but trading above 30D support at $314.36
• Options data shows 32% more call open interest than puts, with heavy concentration at $320–$325 strikes
• Block trades suggest institutional positioning in late-2025/early-2026 calls, including $235–$260 strikes
• Cloud revenue backlog now $155B and AI hardware deals with Meta/Anthropic fuel growth narratives

Here’s the takeaway: GOOG is primed for a breakout above $320. The options market is pricing in a 7%+ move higher, backed by technicals, AI-driven fundamentals, and strategic options positioning. Let’s break down why this is a high-probability setup.

Bullish Imbalance in Options and Whale Moves

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiration, call open interest spikes at $320 (16,051 contracts) and $322.5 (14,090), while puts max out at $305 (4,700). That’s a 3.4x call/put skew at these strikes. The next Friday’s chain shows similar concentration at $320–$325, suggesting smart money is hedging a mid-January pop.

But the real signal comes from block trades. The GOOG20250919C235 and GOOG20251003C250 options saw massive $1.1M+ trades in late 2025. These aren’t random buys — they’re positioning for a 2026 rally. Think of it like a ship loading cargo before a long voyage: the whales are stacking calls for September 2025 and beyond.

News Flow Validates the Bull Case

Alphabet’s Q3 beat ($102.35B revenue) wasn’t just a one-off. The $155B cloud backlog and Gemini 3 AI rollout are creating a flywheel effect. The recent $1.87M institutional buy from KW Wealth and BMO’s $343 price target show confidence in this narrative. Even the bearish analyst’s "diminishing returns" warning is countered by Citizens JMP’s $385 target — that’s 22% upside from current levels.

But don’t ignore the red flags. The SVP’s $9.74M insider sale and 195K shares sold in 90 days raise questions about timing. However, this selling has coincided with $343M in new institutional buying, suggesting a healthy balance of caution and conviction.

Actionable Trade Ideas for 2026

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Buy GOOG20260109C320 (next Friday’s $320 call): With 3,038 contracts of open interest, this strike acts as a magnet. If GOOG breaks above $322.5 (the 30D moving average), this call could multiply 3x+.
• Bull call spread: Buy GOOG20260109C320 and sell GOOG20260109C330 to cap risk while capturing a 5%+ move.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $314.36 (30D support) if price retests here. Target $325 (Bollinger Upper Band) with a stop below $310.
• Breakout play: If GOOG closes above $322.5 today, scale into longs with a $320 trailing stop.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test GOOG’s resolve. A close above $322.5 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $310.65 (intraday low) could trigger panic selling. But given the 76% of analysts with "Strong Buy" ratings and $155B in cloud backlog, I’m leaning toward a breakout. This isn’t just a stock — it’s a bet on AI’s future, and the options market is already pricing in that future today.