Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Target $320 Breakout as AI Momentum Builds

• Alphabet (GOOG) trades at $305.97, up 0.73% with volume surging to 14.7M shares.
• Call options dominate open interest at $320 strikes, while block trades hint at institutional AI-linked bullishness.
• RSI at 36.19 and Bollinger Band proximity suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels.

Here’s the core insight: Alphabet shows clear upside potential. The options market is pricing in a $320+ move, supported by technical indicators and AI-driven earnings optimism—even as short-term volatility persists.

Call Dominance at $320 and Institutional Block Buys Signal AI-Driven Optimism

The options chain tells a story of conviction. For this Friday’s expirations, GOOG20251219C320 (OI: 10,249) and GOOG20251219C315 (OI: 12,678) dominate call open interest, while next Friday’s GOOG20251226C320 (OI: 11,863) reinforces the $320 psychological level. This isn’t just retail frenzy—block trades like GOOG20250919C235 (buy call, $1.14M turnover) and GOOG20251003C250 (unknown call, $503K turnover) suggest institutional positioning for long-term AI growth.

But don’t ignore the risks. The put/call ratio of 0.73 (favoring calls) is bullish, yet the RSI at 36.19 and MACD histogram (-3.68) hint at lingering short-term bearish momentum. If the 30D MA ($313.03) fails to hold, the 200D MA ($212.61) could become a death cross trap.

Earnings Revisions and AI Progress Validate Options Sentiment

Alphabet’s Q3 beat (EPS $2.87 vs. $2.29) and 15.9% YoY revenue growth ($102.35B) back the bullish narrative. Analysts now project $2.59/share for Q4 2025 (+20.5% YoY) and $340.26B in FY 2025 revenue. Gemini AI’s traction and custom TPUs are real catalysts—prediction markets now give GOOG a 33% shot to top global rankings by 2026.

Yet insider sales ($63.98M over 3 months) add caution. While insiders still hold 12.99% of shares, the 19.8% stake reduction by Doliver Advisors LP signals some profit-taking. This isn’t a red flag, but a reminder to hedge with puts if AI hype falters.

Strategic Entry Points: Target $320 Calls and $290 Puts for Risk-Managed Exposure

For options traders:

• Buy GOOG20251219C320 (this Friday’s $320 call) if price breaks above $307.62 (intraday high). The $320 strike is a liquidity magnet, and a close above this could trigger a parabolic move toward $335 (Bollinger Upper Band at $331.29).
• Buy GOOG20251226P290 (next Friday’s $290 put) for downside protection. If the 30D MA ($313.03) collapses, the lower Bollinger Band ($294.77) and 200D MA ($212.61) could accelerate the slide.

For stock traders:

• Consider entry near $307.62 (intraday high) with a stop-loss below $302.34 (intraday low). A breakout above $307.62 targets $313.03 (30D MA), then $320 (key resistance).
• Alternatively, buy the dip if price dips to $300 (Bollinger Middle Band) or the 30D support zone ($319.91–$320.84).

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for a Bullish Breakout

Alphabet’s story is a tug-of-war between AI optimism and short-term technical fragility. The options market is pricing in a $320+ move, but the RSI and MACD suggest a bumpy path. If the 30D MA holds, the $320–$335 range becomes a fortress. If not, the $290–$300 zone offers a safety net.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for AI believers. Position with $320 calls for upside, $290 puts for protection, and keep an eye on the 30D MA. The next 72 hours could decide whether Alphabet’s AI narrative turns into a breakout or a breakdown.