Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal $320 Bullish Bias Amid AI-Driven Optimism – Here’s How to Play It

• GOOG trades at $309.39, down 0.36% with a short-term bearish Kline pattern but long-term bullish trend intact.
• Call open interest spikes at $320 and $335 strikes (this Friday’s expiry), while puts cluster at $290–$285, hinting at a bullish bias.
• JPMorgan’s $385 price target and SpaceX stake hints amplify AI/cloud optimism, but a bearish analyst warns of diminishing returns.

Here’s the takeaway: options market sentiment and technicals align for a bullish bias, but near-term volatility could test $307.52 support. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Call Overload at $320–$335, But Puts Signal Caution

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expiry (Dec 19), GOOG20251219C320 and GOOG20251219C335 dominate call open interest, with 12,715 and 8,224 contracts respectively. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence from options players expecting a rebound above $320. Meanwhile, puts at $290 (7,327 OI) and $285 (6,734 OI) suggest some hedging against a drop below $300.

But here’s the twist: the put/call ratio for open interest is just 0.7375, meaning calls dominate. That’s bullish, but don’t ignore the block trades. Recent large trades like GOOG20250919C235 (800 contracts bought) and GOOG20251003C250 (800 contracts traded) hint at institutional activity. If these calls expire worthless, it could signal a short-term stall.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Analyst Doubts

Alphabet’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. JPMorgan’s $385 target and SpaceX’s $800B valuation potential are tailwinds for AI/cloud growth. The quantum computing expansion in the UK and record $100B Q3 revenue? More fuel for the bullish fire.

But that bearish analyst warning about "diminishing returns" isn’t nothing. If the market starts pricing in slower AI ROI, the $290–$285 put-heavy zone could see action. The key is whether the stock holds above its 30D support at $284.45. If it breaks there, the 200D support at $164.29 becomes a distant concern—but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $320, Puts at $290, and a Stock Play

For options players:

• GOOG20251219C320 (Dec 19 expiry): Buy if GOOG closes above $312.70 today. Target $325–$330 by expiry.
• GOOG20251226C335 (Dec 26 expiry): A longer play if the stock rebounds.
• GOOG20251219P290 (Dec 19 expiry): Buy if GOOG dips below $307.52. Target $295 as a stop-loss.

For stock:

• Entry near $307.52 (intraday low) if support holds. Target $315–$320.
• Exit above $312.70 to lock in gains, or below $305 to cut losses.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism with Prudent Positioning

Alphabet’s options and news flow paint a clear picture: the market is betting on AI-driven growth, but short-term volatility is baked in. The $320–$335 call-heavy zone is a focal point, but don’t ignore the puts at $290. This isn’t a one-way bet—it’s a dance between bullish conviction and cautious hedging.

If you’re in, size matters. A small position in GOOG20251219C320 or a stock entry near $307.52 could ride the AI wave. But if GOOG cracks $305, tighten stops. The next few days will tell if this is a breakout or a false start.