Alphabet (GOOG) Call Dominance at $320 and $350 Targets: A Bullish Setup for Q4 2025 Breakouts

• Options activity shows heavy call open interest at $320 and $315 strikes ahead of Friday’s expiration, with 13,537 contracts at $320 (next Friday).
• News-driven optimism: Citi raised its price target to $350, while Alphabet’s $4.75B Intersect acquisition fuels AI infrastructure bets.
• Technical setup: Price hovers near 30D support ($319.90) but faces long-term bullish momentum from 200D MA at $213.28.

The options market and fundamentals are painting a clear picture: traders are pricing in a breakout above $320, with AI-driven growth and energy bets as tailwinds. Let’s break down why this could be a pivotal week for GOOG.

Bullish Pressure at $320 and Institutional Moves

The call-heavy options chain tells a story of conviction. For this Friday’s expiration, 12,458 contracts are open at the $320 strike—the most of any OTM call. Next Friday’s chain amplifies this, with 13,537 contracts at $320, suggesting a strategic play for a post-holiday rally. Puts are less dominant (put/call ratio: 0.74), but the $280–$290 puts still hold 8,706–18,890 OI, hinting at downside protection for some.

Block trades add intrigue. A GOOG20250919C235 call with 800 contracts traded at $1.42/share (totaling $1.14M) signals institutional interest in mid-$200s strikes. Meanwhile, the $320 call OI surge implies a whale or fund is hedging or speculating on a short-term pop above current levels.

News That Fuels the Fire

Alphabet’s recent moves align with this bullish setup. The $4.75B Intersect acquisition isn’t just a headline—it’s a strategic bet on AI’s energy demands. With data centers needing more power, Intersect’s gigawatt capacity could become a hidden growth driver. Citi’s $350 price target isn’t arbitrary; it factors in AI monetization (custom chips, cloud expansion) and free cash flow resilience.

But don’t ignore the risks. Insider sales (e.g., CEO Pichai’s $8.13M in shares) and Waymo’s robotaxi pause in SF show Alphabet isn’t immune to execution risks. However, the market seems to value its long-term AI roadmap over short-term hiccups.

Actionable Trades for Q4 2025

1. Leveraged Call Play: Buy GOOG20260102C320 (Jan 2 expiration) at current premiums. If GOOG closes above $320 by Friday, this contract could see a 20%+ move.
2. Stock Entry: Consider buying GOOG near $306.60 (intraday low) if it holds above the 30D MA ($313.96). Target $320 as a near-term goal, with $350 as a stretch.
3. Risk-Managed Strategy: Sell the $315 put (GOOG20260102P315) to collect premium while hedging downside.

Volatility on the Horizon

With earnings momentum, AI bets, and a $350 price target in play, GOOG is primed for a directional move. The options market’s focus on $320 and $350 suggests a binary outcome: either a breakout confirming bullish sentiment or a pullback testing the 30D support. Given the news flow and technicals, I’d lean toward the former—but keep a tight stop below $300 to avoid getting caught in a short-term selloff.

This week’s options expirations (Dec 26 and Jan 2) could be the catalyst. If GOOG cracks $320, watch for a follow-through rally toward $350. If not, the 200D MA at $213.28 remains a critical floor. Either way, the data points to a stock in transition—where long-term AI bets meet short-term volatility.