Alnylam Shares Plunge 6.87% as $1.4 Billion Surge in Volume Ranks 65th Despite Record Revenue and 2030 Ambitions

Market Snapshot

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) experienced a 6.87% decline in share price on January 12, 2026, despite a surge in trading volume to $1.4 billion—up 142.06% from the prior day and ranking 65th in market activity. The stock’s performance followed the company’s pre-announcement of preliminary 2025 net product revenue of $2.987 billion, a 81% year-over-year increase driven by its TTR franchise, which grew to $2.487 billion. However, the stock’s drop contrasted with the company’s bullish 2026 guidance of $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion in combined product revenue, reflecting a 71% growth projection at the midpoint.

Key Drivers

Alnylam’s recent strategic roadmap, “Alnylam 2030,” underscores its ambition to dominate the TTR market and expand its RNAi therapeutics pipeline. The company aims to lead the TTR revenue category by 2030, with a focus on launching nucresiran—a next-generation RNAi therapy—for polyneuropathy by 2028 and cardiomyopathy by 2030. This strategy builds on the success of its TTR franchise, which saw 103% growth in 2025, driven by Amvuttra and Onpattro. Management emphasized its track record of meeting or exceeding five-year goals, including the completion of its prior P5x25 plan, which laid the foundation for current commercial momentum.

The stock’s decline, however, may reflect short-term market skepticism about the feasibility of its 2030 targets, including achieving a 25%+ compound annual growth rate in revenue and a 30% non-GAAP operating margin. While Alnylam’s 2026 guidance exceeded analyst estimates for TTR revenue, the broader market might be discounting the risks associated with scaling its operations, particularly as it plans to reinvest 30% of revenue into R&D and expand to 10 tissue types. The company’s pipeline, which includes over 40 clinical programs and partnerships with Roche and Regeneron, remains a long-term catalyst but requires sustained investment and regulatory clarity.

Another critical factor is the performance of Alnylam’s rare disease franchise, which grew 18% in 2025 to $499 million but is projected to see only 10% growth in 2026. This suggests that the company’s near-term revenue growth will remain heavily reliant on its TTR portfolio, creating potential volatility if market dynamics or payer access shift. Additionally, the recent Q4 revenue for Amvuttra and Onpattro ($827 million and $32 million, respectively) narrowly missed internal and Street estimates, raising questions about the sustainability of its current growth trajectory despite long-term guidance.

The stock’s 6.87% drop could also be attributed to broader market conditions, such as sector-specific pressures in biotechnology or macroeconomic factors affecting investor sentiment. While Alnylam’s 2030 strategy highlights transformative opportunities—such as zilebesiran for hypertension and mivelsiran for cerebral amyloid angiopathy—the path to commercialization involves significant execution risks, including clinical trial outcomes and regulatory approvals. Investors may be factoring in the challenges of maintaining high-growth rates while expanding into new therapeutic areas and managing operational complexity.

In summary, Alnylam’s stock movement reflects a balance between optimism about its long-term strategic vision and caution regarding near-term execution risks. The company’s ability to meet its 2030 targets will depend on the successful launch of nucresiran, continued TTR franchise growth, and disciplined reinvestment in its pipeline. However, the market’s immediate reaction underscores the need for consistent performance in both commercial and developmental milestones to sustain investor confidence.