Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) Market Overview – September 16, 2025

• Price action showed a bullish morning breakout followed by consolidation and a bearish afternoon pullback.
• Momentum remained mixed with RSI hovering near neutral levels, indicating indecision.
• Volatility expanded early, then contracted, pointing to possible key levels being tested.
• Turnover spiked during the morning rally but faded in the afternoon, suggesting a lack of follow-through.
• No clear reversal or continuation candlestick patterns were observed during the session.

Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) opened at $0.00464 on September 15 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00468 on September 16 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a 24-hour high of $0.00471 and a low of $0.00455. Total trading volume amounted to 51,239,520 TLM, with a notional turnover of approximately $236,047 (based on Tether-weighted prices).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bullish bias during the early morning hours, with a clear push above the $0.00468 psychological level. This was followed by a period of consolidation and a bearish pullback in the afternoon, forming a potential bearish flag pattern. Key support levels are visible near $0.00465 and $0.00462, while resistance holds firm around $0.00468 to $0.00470. A doji at $0.00467 during the morning session suggests indecision, and a large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 22:15 ET may indicate short-term exhaustion on the bullish side.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20-period (0.00466) and 50-period (0.00465) moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend. However, the 50-period MA has begun to flatten, suggesting weakening upward momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains above the 50-day (0.00464) and 100-day (0.00463) MAs, but has dipped below the 200-day MA (0.00467), hinting at potential bearish pressure from longer-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the early morning session, confirming the bullish move, but has since declined and is now near the neutral zone. The histogram is shrinking, indicating waning momentum. The RSI remains in the 50–55 range throughout most of the day, suggesting a period of consolidation. While the indicator did not enter overbought or oversold territory, it did show mild divergence in the afternoon as price declined while RSI remained relatively flat.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early part of the session, pushing the price close to the upper band. By midday, volatility began to contract, and the price moved closer to the midline of the bands, indicating a period of range trading. The narrowing of the bands suggests that a breakout or breakdown could occur in the near future, with potential key levels near the $0.00468 and $0.00465 levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked during the morning rally and remained elevated in the early afternoon before tapering off in the final hours. The highest volume was observed during the 06:15–06:30 ET session, coinciding with a sharp bullish move. Turnover moved in sync with volume, peaking at over $21,000 during the morning push and declining significantly in the afternoon. The lack of follow-through in the afternoon may suggest reduced conviction among bullish traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 15-minute move from $0.00459 to $0.00471 showed the 61.8% retracement at $0.00465 aligning with a key support zone. The 38.2% level at $0.00469 was tested but held firm. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the prior week’s swing (not shown here) remains a watchpoint for medium-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout-based approach triggered by the price crossing above the 20-period moving average and closing above the upper Bollinger Band. This would be reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover and RSI above 55, confirming momentum. A stop-loss could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level or at the nearest support zone around $0.00465. The target would be the next resistance level at $0.00470. Given the recent consolidation, the strategy may benefit from a time filter—triggering only between 12:00 and 15:00 ET, when volatility tends to increase. This approach would require further backtesting over multiple cycles to assess consistency and adjust for market noise.