Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-09-25 12:00 ET – 2025-09-26 12:00 ET

• Price declined from 0.00408 to 0.00399 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• High volume observed during key downward moves, confirming bearish bias.
• RSI and MACD suggest moderate oversold conditions, though trend remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands show mild contraction before 09:00 ET and expansion afterward.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight 0.00396–0.00401 as key levels for potential bounce or continuation.

Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) opened at 0.00408 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00399 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour range was 0.00408 (high) to 0.00387 (low). Total volume reached approximately 51,640,666.0, and the notional turnover amounted to $204,606.00. Price behavior indicates a bearish bias with strong volume-driven declines.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of bearish price breaks, particularly between 16:00 and 21:00 ET, where TLMUSDT moved from 0.00408 to 0.00393. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 17:15–17:30 ET, followed by a doji at 19:30–19:45 ET, signaling indecision before another leg lower. A key support level forms around 0.00395–0.00396, with resistance retesting at 0.00400–0.00401 during the recovery phase after 00:00 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA during the early drop, reinforcing bearish momentum. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sits above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a continuation of the short-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory around 17:15 ET, confirming the bearish shift. It remained in negative territory for the majority of the session, with a slight narrowing as price approached 0.00396–0.00399, hinting at a possible slowdown in selling pressure. RSI reached oversold levels (below 30) by 21:00 ET, peaking at 27.8, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, though bearish control remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction between 09:00 and 11:00 ET, with price consolidating near the middle band. A sharp expansion followed after 12:00 ET as price broke lower, settling near the lower band by the close. The widening bands suggest increased volatility, with price near the lower boundary, a potential sign of a mean reversion or further decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:00–19:30 ET window, coinciding with the largest leg down from 0.00408 to 0.00396. Notional turnover mirrored volume behavior, with the most significant drop occurring between 17:00–17:30 ET (over $6,000). No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, confirming the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing high (0.00408 at 16:00 ET) and low (0.00387 at 21:00 ET), the 61.8% level is at 0.00394, which acted as a minor floor. The 38.2% level at 0.00398 and 50% at 0.00397 provided resistance during the recovery after 00:00 ET, with price rebounding from these levels but failing to break above them.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish structure and Fibonacci levels, a potential backtesting hypothesis would involve shorting on a confirmed close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.00394) with a stop-loss just above the 50% level (0.00397). A target could be set at 0.00391, aligning with a previous low during the session. This strategy could be tested over multiple 15-minute cycles to assess its consistency and risk-reward profile in similar market environments.