Alibaba Cloud Founder Predicts AI Transformation: 90% of New AI Innovations Will Disappear Within 5-10 Years

Alibaba's cloud and AI division founder Wang Jian predicts 90% of AI technologies and services will disappear in 5-10 years, viewing it as a positive development for advancing core AI technology. The average one-year price target for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is $149.52, with a high estimate of $176.14 and a low estimate of $102.26, implying a 24.57% upside from the current price. The estimated GF Value for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd in one year is $111.74, suggesting a downside of 6.91% from the current price.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) is at the forefront of the tech industry, with its cloud and AI division leading the way in innovation. Wang Jian, the visionary behind this division, recently shared his perspective on the future of artificial intelligence. He predicts that 90% of AI technologies and services that have emerged following the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI will no longer exist in the next five to ten years. Jian views this as a positive development, as it aids in the exploration and advancement of core AI technology [1].

The market is closely watching Alibaba's stock performance. Based on the one-year price targets offered by 38 analysts, the average target price for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) is $149.52, with a high estimate of $176.14 and a low estimate of $102.26. This implies an average upside of 24.57% from the current price of $120.03 [1]. The consensus recommendation from 41 brokerage firms is currently 1.7, indicating an "Outperform" status [1].

GuruFocus estimates that the GF Value for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) in one year is $111.74, suggesting a downside of 6.91% from the current price of $120.03 [1]. The GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at, calculated based on historical multiples and future estimates of business performance.

Wang Jian also addressed the competitive landscape in China's AI industry, stating that "healthy competition" is helping the country develop into a fast-paced test-bed for getting products to market. He also discussed the high pay packets being offered in Silicon Valley to hire AI talent [2].

Institutional investors have been active in Alibaba's stock. RWC Asset Management LLP decreased its stake in Alibaba Group by 14.0%, holding 184,940 shares valued at approximately $24.5 million [3]. Despite some price target downgrades, analysts maintain a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for Alibaba shares, with a consensus target price of $153.29 [3].

Alibaba's cloud business is showing strong growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in revenue driven by strong demand for AI. However, increased investment in its instant retail business has led to downward revisions in Alibaba's adjusted EBITA and revenue projections for fiscal year 2026 [4].

In conclusion, Alibaba's cloud and AI division is poised for significant growth, driven by advancements in core AI technology. The company's stock is currently trading at an attractive valuation, with a moderate buy rating from analysts. However, investors should keep an eye on the company's instant retail investments and their potential impact on financial performance.

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3007472/alibaba-baba-cloud-founder-predicts-ai-transformation
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/video/alibaba-cloud-founder-chinas-ai-011510657.html
[3] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-alibaba-group-holding-limited-nysebaba-holdings-decreased-by-rwc-asset-management-llp-2025-07-27/
[4] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2992120/alibaba-baba-faces-profit-pressure-amid-increased-investment-in-instant-retail?mod=news_archive&r=4bf001661e6fdd88d0cd7a5659ff9748