Algorand/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Downtrend and Oversold Momentum

• Price opened at $0.2552 and closed at $0.2441, with a 24-hour low of $0.2415 and high of $0.2563.
• Momentum shifted lower after 16:45 ET, with the RSI entering oversold territory by 02:30 ET.
• Volatility expanded through the session, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing the lower band multiple times.
• Volume spiked during the early AM hours on 2025-09-14, signaling increased bearish participation.
• Key support at $0.2465–0.2485 repeatedly rejected buyers, while resistance near $0.2535–0.2555 failed to hold.

The Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) pair opened at $0.2552 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2441 on 2025-09-14 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.2563 and a low of $0.2415 during the session. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 36,662,303. Total turnover (notional value) amounted to $9,360,000, indicating moderate liquidity in a bearish trend.

The pair exhibited a distinct bearish bias, marked by several bearish candlestick patterns, including a shooting star near $0.2563 and a hanging man pattern at $0.2535. A key support area formed between $0.2465 and $0.2485, which was tested multiple times during the session. The most significant rejection came from $0.2485, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed in the early morning of 2025-09-14. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sloped downward, confirming the ongoing downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was below the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the session, with price testing the lower band multiple times. The most notable expansion occurred between 07:00 and 09:00 ET, when volatility surged and the RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory. While this could signal a short-term bounce, the lack of follow-through volume suggests the bearish momentum remains intact. The MACD was negative throughout the session, with the histogram shrinking in the final hours as price approached oversold levels, hinting at potential for a temporary pullback if buyers step in.

Volume was most concentrated during the late-night and early-morning hours on 2025-09-14, with a peak of 1,826,204 at 11:45 ET and 806,575 at 12:00 ET. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, reinforcing the bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8% on the intraday move from $0.2563 to $0.2415 were at $0.2535 and $0.2465 respectively, both of which were tested and rejected. A potential next target is the 78.6% retracement at $0.2430, which may serve as an initial floor for further consolidation or a reversal attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis
The pair’s bearish momentum and oversold RSI reading present a potential short-term reversal opportunity. A possible backtesting strategy could involve a long entry on a close above the 20-period MA (approximately $0.2470) with a stop-loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2465. A take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($0.2535) or a break of the most recent high at $0.2563. This setup would rely on the assumption that the 24-hour bearish exhaustion and Fibonacci levels can act as psychological triggers for a bounce. However, given the strong bearish bias in the broader context, this should be treated as a short-term countertrend trade with tight risk management. The strategy could be backtested over the next few weeks by monitoring how price reacts to the 20-period MA and Fibonacci retracement levels in a controlled and consistent manner.