Alcoa Suspends Canadian Expansion Due to Tariff Concerns, Analysts Predict 16.06% Upside

Alcoa halts Canadian expansion due to US tariff concerns, with analysts predicting a 16.06% upside and a price target range of $27.00 to $42.30. The company's current rating is "Outperform" based on consensus from 12 brokerage firms. Alcoa's GF Value is estimated at $27.21, signaling a potential downside of 10.29% from the current price.

Alcoa (AA, Financial) has halted its Canadian expansion projects due to significant challenges posed by U.S. tariffs. The company, a major player in the aluminum industry, has suspended all growth plans in Canada as a result of the financial strain caused by the additional $115 million in costs incurred during the second quarter [1]. CEO Bill Oplinger has indicated that the company may seek support from the Canadian government if these conditions persist beyond the negotiation deadline.

Analysts have forecast a potential 16.06% upside for Alcoa, with a price target range of $27.00 to $42.30. The consensus from 12 brokerage firms has rated Alcoa as "Outperform," reflecting a positive outlook on the company's ability to navigate current challenges [1]. The company's GF Value is estimated at $27.21, signaling a potential downside of 10.29% from the current price [1].

Alcoa's stock price surged 4.01% to $29.71 on July 17, 2025, with an intraday high of $30.39. Analysts forecast an average target price of $35.09, with a high estimate of $42.30 and a low estimate of $26.00, indicating an 18.12% upside from the current price [3]. The company reported a total revenue of $3.018 billion in the second quarter, a decrease of 10% from the previous quarter. Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $164 million, or $0.62 per common share, reflecting lower prices for alumina and aluminum and increased tariff costs [3].

The company has warned it could face further tariff costs if President Trump follows through on threats to place 50% tariffs on Brazil, where Alcoa sources alumina to feed its US plants. Oplinger said he’s now deciding whether to preemptively source alumina outside of Brazil in anticipation of those prospective levies [2].

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2988663/alcoa-aa-halts-canadian-expansion-amid-tariff-concerns
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/alcoa-ceo-says-trump-tariffs-force-a-pause-for-canada-growth-projects
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/alcoa-corp-stock-surges-4-01-analyst-predictions-2507/