Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview – October 3, 2025

• ALCXUSDT rose to $9.03 before retreating to $8.85, forming mixed bullish and bearish candlestick patterns.
• Momentum shifted from positive to negative, with RSI dipping below 50 and MACD crossing into bearish territory.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the afternoon, reflecting increased volatility and indecision.
• Volume and turnover diverged in the evening, with volume declining as price dropped, signaling potential bearish pressure.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at $8.97 and $8.84 may act as key support/resistance in the next 24 hours.

Market Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 2, Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $8.79, surged to a high of $9.03, and closed at $8.89 by 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair reached an intraday low of $8.81, with total volume of 29,761.03 and a notional turnover of $273,027.07 over 24 hours. The price action reflected a volatile consolidation after a strong afternoon push.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a series of mixed candlestick patterns. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around $8.98, followed by a bearish harami near $8.93. A doji appeared at $8.90, signaling indecision. Key support levels emerged at $8.90 and $8.84, with resistance at $8.97 and $9.03.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned, indicating a consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend. The price remained above the 50-period daily MA at $8.92.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after an initial positive divergence, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. RSI moved from overbought at 68 to a mid-range of 49, suggesting a pullback could continue. The RSI divergence with price near $9.03 may indicate an overbought correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the afternoon as price moved between $8.83 and $9.03, reflecting heightened volatility. The price closed near the midline on the 15-minute chart, but drifted closer to the lower band in the last 2 hours. This suggests weakening bullish momentum and a possible bounce from support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon rally to $9.03, peaking at 761.005. However, the subsequent drop to $8.85 occurred on declining volume, signaling waning bearish conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, peaking at $9,014.38 during the rally and dropping to $1,048.74 in the late evening. A volume/price divergence was observed around $8.90, suggesting caution in interpreting bearish signals.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing high ($9.03) to the swing low ($8.81) were at $8.97 (38.2%), $8.92 (50%), and $8.84 (61.8%). The price currently rests near $8.85, suggesting a potential bounce or retest of $8.92 if buyers enter.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a backtesting strategy that targets entries on bullish engulfing patterns and bearish harami patterns near key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 61.8% retracement at $8.84) could offer high-probability setups. The current price proximity to $8.84 aligns well with this approach. Using a 15-minute timeframe, a long bias would be triggered near $8.84 if a bullish engulfing pattern forms, with a stop-loss below $8.77 and a target at $8.92. A short bias would be considered at $8.97 with a bearish harami and target at $8.84. This strategy leverages the technical environment and could be optimized with historical ALCXUSDT data.