Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price fell sharply from $13.08 to $9.25 over 24 hours, driven by bearish momentum.
• Strong volume spikes marked key breakdown levels, especially after 19:45 ET.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum with oversold conditions at close.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $12.44 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $13.08, then dropped sharply to a 24-hour low of $9.25 before closing at $9.77 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 422,769.37 ALCX, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,146,059. The asset appears to have broken below key support levels, raising bearish concerns for near-term continuation.

Structure & Formations

A sharp bearish reversal pattern emerged after the initial $13.08 high, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle at 19:45 ET, signaling increased selling pressure. A series of lower lows and lower highs after 20:00 ET consolidated the bearish sentiment, with price finding temporary support at the $10.0–$10.5 range. The $11.00–$11.50 area appears to have acted as a strong resistance cluster, preventing a full recovery.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key support levels after 20:00 ET, reinforcing the downward momentum. The 50-period line is currently at ~$10.50, which may serve as a potential target for further consolidation or a minor bounce. On the daily chart, the 200-day MA appears to be acting as a critical long-term support at ~$10.00, but given the depth of the recent move, a break below this level is now a high-probability event.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned sharply negative after 20:00 ET and remained bearish, with the histogram showing increasing bearish divergence. The RSI dropped below 30 late in the session, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal pattern, this is more likely a continuation of the downtrend rather than a bottoming signal. Both indicators are aligned in bearish bias, suggesting further downward pressure in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 19:45 ET as the price broke below the lower Bollinger band, indicating a breakout phase. Price spent much of the session trading well below the 20-period band, with minimal retracement. A consolidation phase may follow, but until the upper band reclaims the price action, the bearish outlook remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 19:45 ET when the price dropped below $10.00, with over 54,660 ALCX traded in a single 15-minute interval. This spike confirmed the breakdown, suggesting increased participation in the bearish move. The notional turnover also surged during this period, indicating strong conviction in the downward move. However, volume has been declining slightly in the past four hours, which could hint at a potential short-term pause.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the recent $13.08 high to the $9.25 low, key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (~$11.24) and 61.8% (~$10.05) have been tested. Price bounced off the 61.8% level briefly but failed to hold, confirming that the trend remains bearish. A break below $10.00 could extend the decline toward the next Fibonacci level at ~$8.90, depending on liquidity and market sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing formation and confirmation through volume and momentum indicators, a backtest strategy could be designed to enter short positions upon confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed just above the high of the pattern and a target set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. This approach, if applied to ALCXUSDT, could be tested for its effectiveness in capturing the recent downturn. For broader application, the same logic could be applied to other altcoins experiencing similar formations, using a consistent exit and stop-loss framework.