Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview

• Price formed key resistance at $9.01–$9.04 and support at $8.86–$8.82 on 15-min chart
• Momentum surged post-overnight, with RSI peaking at overbought levels near 70
• Volatility expanded after 2025-10-05 02:45 ET, coinciding with volume spike to $536.31k
• Price action reversed sharply from 10k+ volume candles at 8.91–8.93, showing indecision
• Bollinger Band width widened as price approached 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of prior rally

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $8.68 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, reached a high of $9.04, and closed at $8.93 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total volume was 14,367.48 units and turnover amounted to $127,898.16 over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price developed a bullish structure from 2025-10-04 22:00 to 2025-10-05 03:45 ET, forming a measured move up to $9.04. Resistance appeared to congregate between $9.01 and $9.04, where three rejection candles emerged. A bearish reversal was observed starting at 2025-10-05 09:45 ET, with a large volume candle forming a bearish engulfing pattern at $8.98–$8.93. Support was reaffirmed between $8.86 and $8.82, with a potential double-bottom structure forming. A morning doji formed at $8.95–$8.96 on 2025-10-05 06:00 ET, suggesting indecision and a potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line (a bullish crossover) at $8.86–$8.87 between 2025-10-05 03:15 and 04:15 ET. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support after 2025-10-05 06:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at $8.82 while the 200-period MA was at $8.78, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish around 2025-10-05 02:45 ET with a clear histogram expansion, confirming the upward move. However, the momentum waned after 2025-10-05 09:45 ET as RSI dropped from 70 to 55. RSI moved into overbought territory during the $8.91–$9.04 rally and then entered oversold territory by 2025-10-05 15:15 ET, signaling a potential bounce from key support.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band width expanded significantly after 2025-10-05 02:45 ET, signaling increased volatility. Price tested the upper band at $9.04 and the lower band at $8.82. During the morning consolidation phase, price stayed within the band, but a contraction occurred between 2025-10-05 06:00 and 07:00 ET, indicating a potential breakout phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged from 2025-10-05 02:45 to 04:45 ET, peaking at 536.31k units, confirming the bullish breakout. A divergence emerged between volume and price as the rally lost steam—volume declined after 2025-10-05 09:45 ET, despite the price staying above $8.90. A large bearish candle at 2025-10-05 09:45 ET carried 309.52k units of volume, suggesting aggressive shorting activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior $8.68–$9.04 rally sat at $8.90, which was tested and rejected. The 61.8% retracement at $8.83 became a key support level and held during the afternoon sell-off. Short-term traders may watch for a retest of $8.90 as a potential pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 20-period moving average, confirmed by a close above the upper Bollinger Band and a MACD histogram expansion. A stop-loss could be placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $8.90. For short positions, a bearish reversal at $8.93–$8.90 with a close below the 50-period MA and a bearish divergence in RSI could trigger a sell signal. This approach leverages both trend and momentum signals.