Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Breakdown and Strategy Preview

• ALCXUSDT declined by 12.7% over 24 hours, closing at $8.36 after forming a bearish continuation pattern.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, and volume surged during the final 4 hours, suggesting possible exhaustion or accumulation.
• Bollinger Bands widened post 6:00 AM ET, signaling heightened volatility and a possible shift in momentum.
• MACD diverged from price during the final leg down, hinting at a potential short-term reversal or consolidation.

Opening and Closing Summary

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $8.79 (12:00 ET–1) and closed at $8.36 (12:00 ET), with a high of $8.85 and a low of $8.27. The pair traded 11,468.26 volumes and $97,183.24 in notional turnover during the 24-hour window. The price action reflected sustained bearish pressure, with multiple breakdowns below key psychological levels.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish continuation pattern, with a long lower shadow appearing after 8:00 PM ET and several engulfing bearish candles from 1:00 AM to 7:00 AM ET. A bearish morning star formed around $8.52–8.56, followed by a key breakdown below $8.50. The final 4-hour period featured a strong bearish acceleration with a gap down and a deep doji at $8.36, signaling potential exhaustion or a short-term bottoming pattern. Key support levels formed at $8.36, $8.42, and $8.50, while resistance is found at $8.56 and $8.62.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA remained bearishly aligned, with price staying well below both lines. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA all appear bearish, confirming the broader downtrend. The 50DMA is currently at $8.62, acting as a key psychological and structural resistance level.

MACD and RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence from price in the final 4 hours of trading, with the histogram narrowing as price dropped below the signal line. RSI plunged into oversold territory around 2.00 AM ET at 28, then rebounded slightly to 32 by close, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded after 6:00 AM ET, indicating rising volatility and uncertainty. Price remained near the lower band for most of the day, with a sharp drop to $8.27 pushing it temporarily below. This suggests a potential retest of the lower band or a rebound within the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the final 4 hours of the 24-hour period, with over 3,000 volumes traded in the last 4 hours alone. Notional turnover reached its peak at $18,800 during the 9:00–10:00 AM ET window. The divergence between price and volume suggests either distribution or a short-term buying climax, both of which are potential reversal signals.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels showed strong confluence around $8.50 (61.8% of the $8.36–$8.79 swing) and $8.62 (78.6%). The 38.2% level at $8.56 saw a strong rejection, with price rebounding and consolidating for a brief period before the final leg down.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for ALCXUSDT could involve a short-biased entry on a breakdown of the 50SMA with confirmation from bearish divergence on MACD and RSI dipping into oversold territory. A stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, while a take-profit target might be set at the 61.8% level or the 20SMA, depending on volatility. This setup aligns with the bearish continuation observed in the recent 15-minute and daily patterns.