Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-27

• ALCXUSDT formed a bullish breakout above key resistance at $8.25, closing near $8.29.
• RSI and MACD show strengthening momentum, with volume surging on the breakout.
• Price tested and rejected the 20-period MA on the 15-min chart, reinforcing the bullish bias.
• Volatility expanded on Bollinger Bands, with price consolidating near the upper band.
• Fibonacci levels suggest 61.8% retracement at $8.34 as a potential near-term target.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $8.14 (12:00 ET – 1), surged to a high of $8.34, and closed at $8.29 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 21,822.89 with $176,954.61 turnover.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong upward bias, with price forming a bullish engulfing pattern at $8.25 and a key breakout above the 20-period moving average. The 50-period moving average (15-min) is at $8.23, acting as a dynamic support, while the 200-period MA on the daily chart remains above current levels, suggesting a potential reversal risk if the move falters.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bullish bias: MACD is above the signal line with a positive crossover at 17:30 ET, and RSI has moved into overbought territory at 68, indicating a strong upward thrust. However, a pullback could be expected if RSI fails to hold above 60. Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility with price lingering near the upper band, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Volume and turnover surged during the breakout, with a 4245.32 volume spike at 05:15 ET driving price higher. Notional turnover and volume are aligned, confirming the strength of the move. Fibonacci retracements on the 15-min swing from $8.14 to $8.34 indicate potential support at 38.2% ($8.29) and resistance at 61.8% ($8.34), which may dictate near-term direction.

A Backtest Hypothesis could be constructed using the 15-minute breakout above the 20 MA as a signal. A long entry at a close above $8.25 with a stop loss below $8.20 could be tested. Targets could be set at $8.30 (50 MA), $8.34 (Fib 61.8%), and $8.38 (next Bollinger Band level).