Alamos Gold registra un aumento de 5% por la renovación de la recompra de acciones y técnicas optimistas: ¿Es éste el inicio de una nueva racha de alza?

Summary
• Alamos Gold (AGI) rockets 5.09% to $40.44, hitting its 52-week high of $40.82
• Company renews $54.4M share buyback program, signaling undervaluation
• Sector leader Gold.com (GOLD) gains 0.59%, amplifying bullish momentum
• Technicals show short-term bullish trend with RSI at 59.9 and MACD above signal line

Alamos Gold’s intraday surge has captured market attention as the gold producer renews its share repurchase program, aligning with a broader commodities rally. The stock’s 5.09% jump to $40.44 reflects renewed investor confidence in management’s capital allocation strategy and favorable technical conditions. With gold prices hitting record highs and geopolitical tensions fueling safe-haven demand, AGI’s move appears to be a strategic response to both internal and external catalysts.

Share Buyback Renewal Sparks Investor Optimism
Alamos Gold’s 5.09% intraday surge is directly tied to its renewed Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), authorizing the repurchase of up to 18.58 million shares (4.4% of total shares). The company cited undervaluation as the rationale, echoing its previous $54.4 million buyback program that repurchased 1.327 million shares at an average price of C$40.97. This move signals management’s conviction in the stock’s discounted valuation and aligns with broader gold sector strength, as global geopolitical tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations drive safe-haven demand. The buyback also enhances earnings per share through share count reduction, appealing to value-focused investors.

Gold Sector Soars as Safe-Haven Demand Intensifies
The gold sector is experiencing a historic rally, with gold prices hitting $4,429.99 per ounce and silver surging to $68.96. Alamos Gold’s 5.09% gain mirrors the sector’s momentum, as central banks and ETFs continue to accumulate bullion. Sector leader Gold.com (GOLD) rose 0.59% intraday, reflecting the broader trend. The sector’s strength is underpinned by Trump-era trade tensions, Fed dovishness, and a weakening U.S. dollar, all of which amplify gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on AGI’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.183 (above signal line 1.135), RSI: 59.9 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $33.59–$39.60 (price near upper band)
• 200-day MA: $29.35 (well below current price), 30-day MA: $35.39 (support at $38.34)

Alamos Gold’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $40.82 (52-week high) and support at $38.34. The RSI’s 59.9 reading indicates no overbought conditions, while the MACD’s positive histogram signals momentum. For options, two contracts stand out:

• AGI20260116C40 (Call):
- Strike: $40, Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 44.77% (moderate), Delta: 0.565 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.067 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.082 (high sensitivity to price moves), Turnover: $62,968
- Leverage Ratio: 18.61% (high), Price Change: +73.60%
- This call option offers aggressive leverage with high gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $40.82. A 5% upside to $42.46 would yield a payoff of $2.46 per share, translating to a 61% return on the option.

• AGI20260116C41 (Call):
- Strike: $41, Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 42.55% (moderate), Delta: 0.479 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.062 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.087 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $43,785
- Leverage Ratio: 25.24% (very high), Price Change: +64.95%
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, with a 5% upside scenario yielding a $1.46 payoff (35% return). Its high gamma makes it responsive to volatility spikes, aligning with the sector’s risk-on environment.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls should consider AGI20260116C40 into a breakout above $40.82, while conservative traders may use AGI20260116C41 for a balanced leveraged play.

Backtest Alamos Gold Stock Performance
The performance of Alamos Gold (AGI) after a 5% intraday surge from 2022 to the present was tested. The strategy resulted in a cumulative return of -86.79%, an annualized return of -164.44%, a maximum draw-down of 89.56%, and a negative Sharpe ratio of -1.18. This indicates that buying after every minor intraday surge has not been beneficial for this stock during this period.

Alamos Gold’s Bull Run Gains Legs: Watch $40.82 and Sector Sentiment
Alamos Gold’s 5.09% surge is a blend of strategic buybacks and favorable technicals, positioning it as a key player in the gold sector’s rally. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and strong options liquidity suggest momentum is intact. Sector leader Gold.com’s 0.59% gain reinforces the broader trend. Investors should monitor the $40.82 level for a potential breakout and consider the AGI20260116C40 call for aggressive upside potential. With geopolitical tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations persisting, AGI’s bullish trajectory appears well-supported—provided the $38.34 support holds.