Akebia Therapeutics 2025 Q3 Earnings Turns Profit with 102.7% Net Income Swing

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) reported Q3 2025 earnings, with revenue up 57% to $58.77 million, surpassing expectations. The company turned a $20 million loss into a $540,000 profit. Guidance highlights 4x growth in Vafseo access by year-end. However, stock fell 3.47% post-earnings, reflecting mixed market reaction.

Revenue

Product revenue, net, accounted for the majority at $56.79 million, while license and collaboration revenue contributed $1.98 million, bringing total revenues to $58.77 million. The year-over-year surge was driven by strong performance in key products, including Auryxia and Vafseo, which demonstrated robust demand in the dialysis anemia treatment market.

Earnings/Net Income

Akebia maintained stable EPS at $0.00 compared to 2024 Q3, while net income surged to $540,000—a 102.7% improvement from a $20.04 million loss. This marked a record high for Q3 net income in nine years, underscoring the company’s operational turnaround. The stable EPS and positive net income indicate a strong financial performance despite challenges.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

The revenue beat generated investor optimism, with the stock initially rising on the earnings report. However, post-announcement volatility saw a 3.47% decline in a single trading day and a 42.21% drop month-to-date. A 30-day holding strategy post-revenue beat could capitalize on market digestion of positive news, though risks like operational hurdles, negative net margins, and an Altman Z-Score of -4.84 signal caution. The strategy’s viability hinges on monitoring long-term profitability and operational execution beyond the initial period.

CEO Commentary

John P. Butler highlighted progress in expanding Vafseo’s market access, including partnerships with DaVita and Innovative Renal Care, projecting fourfold growth by year-end. Post-hoc data from ASN Kidney Week reinforced Vafseo’s mortality/hospitalization benefits. Q3 net product revenues for Vafseo and Auryxia reached $14.3 million and $42.5 million, respectively, driven by physician adoption and refill rates.

Guidance

Akebia anticipates closing the DaVita pilot by Q4 2025, enabling access for 275,000 patients by year-end. Regulatory guidance excludes pursuit of a non-dialysis CKD label for Vafseo. Financially, the company expects to remain funded with $166.4 million in cash, targeting profitability under its current operating plan.

Additional News

Akebia’s DaVita pilot expansion and post-hoc mortality data at ASN Kidney Week bolstered confidence in Vafseo’s clinical value. The company also announced a strategic shift to focus on dialysis patients, forgoing non-dialysis CKD trials post-FDA Type C meeting. Meanwhile, operational challenges at US Renal Care, including adherence issues and protocol adjustments, remain under review. Analysts remain bullish, with a median 12-month price target of $6.00, 66% above the current share price.