Airbnb Earnings: Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead of Earnings Call

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results on Thursday, February 13, after the closing bell. As the earnings call approaches, analysts have been revising their forecasts, reflecting their confidence or caution in the company's earnings prospects. Let's delve into the most accurate analysts' revised forecasts and their implications for investors.



Revised Earnings Estimates

1. Earnings per Share (EPS):
- Consensus Estimate: $0.63
- Most Accurate Analysts' Forecasts:
- Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski: $0.58 (Underweight rating)
- Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak: $0.65 (Underweight rating)
- B of A Securities analyst Justin Post: $0.63 (Neutral rating)
- Truist Securities analyst Naved Khan: $0.62 (Hold rating)
- DA Davidson analyst Tom White: $0.60 (Neutral rating)

2. Revenue:
- Consensus Estimate: $2.42 billion
- Most Accurate Analysts' Forecasts:
- Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski: $2.42 billion (Underweight rating)
- Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak: $2.45 billion (Underweight rating)
- B of A Securities analyst Justin Post: $2.42 billion (Neutral rating)
- Truist Securities analyst Naved Khan: $2.42 billion (Hold rating)
- DA Davidson analyst Tom White: $2.40 billion (Neutral rating)



Key Factors Driving Revisions

Analysts' revisions in earnings estimates for Airbnb are driven by several key factors:

1. Revenue Growth: Analysts have been revising their revenue estimates upward, reflecting the company's strong growth in bookings and revenue. The consensus revenue estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 has been revised upward by 3.5% over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' optimism about the company's top-line performance.
2. Earnings Growth: Analysts have also been revising their earnings estimates upward, reflecting the company's improved profitability. The consensus EPS estimate for the fourth quarter of 2024 has been revised upward by 17.1% year over year, demonstrating analysts' confidence in the company's bottom-line performance.
3. Gross Booking Value (GBV): Analysts expect 'Gross Booking Value' to come in at $17.18 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $15.50 billion in the same quarter last year. This indicates that analysts anticipate a significant increase in the total value of bookings made through the Airbnb platform.
4. Nights and Experiences Booked: Analysts expect 'Nights and Experiences Booked' to reach 108.49 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 98.8 million in the same quarter last year. This suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial increase in the number of bookings made through the platform.
5. Gross Booking Value per Night and Experience Booked (ADR): Analysts expect 'Gross Booking Value per Night and Experience Booked (ADR)' to reach $158.50 for the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $156.73 in the same quarter last year. This indicates that analysts anticipate an increase in the average daily rate for bookings made through the platform.

Implications for Investors

The most accurate analysts' revised forecasts for Airbnb's earnings provide valuable insights for investors. The neutral analyst ratings and the wide range of price targets suggest that investors should be cautious when considering Airbnb stock. While some analysts are optimistic about the company's future, others are more cautious, indicating that there is uncertainty surrounding the company's earnings prospects. Investors should carefully evaluate the company's financial performance, market position, and competitive landscape before making investment decisions.



In conclusion, as Airbnb's earnings call approaches, analysts have been revising their forecasts, reflecting their confidence or caution in the company's earnings prospects. Investors should pay close attention to these revisions and consider the key factors driving them when making investment decisions. By staying informed about the most accurate analysts' forecasts, investors can better navigate the market and make more informed decisions about whether to invest in Airbnb stock.