AI Supercycle, New Winners, Peak Employee Count and The Year of Offense

The article discusses the impact of AI on companies in public and private markets, as highlighted in the Coatue investor deck for 2025. The deck, paired with a YouTube podcast with the Laffont brothers and Gurley and Gerstner, explores the effects of AI on various sectors, including Microsoft's potential peak employee headcount and AppLovin's turnaround. The year 2025 is predicted to be the "year of offense," with companies like Microsoft and Meta trying to keep up with Open AI. The article also highlights new sectors of AI winners and potential top 40 companies in 2030.

The year 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for artificial intelligence (AI) in both public and private markets. As highlighted in Coatue's 2025 investor deck, the integration of AI is poised to reshape various sectors, with significant implications for companies like Microsoft and Meta. The deck, paired with a YouTube podcast featuring the Laffont brothers and Gurley and Gerstner, provides a comprehensive overview of the effects of AI on different industries.

According to Coatue, the year 2025 is predicted to be the "year of offense," with companies like Microsoft and Meta trying to keep up with OpenAI. The investor deck suggests that OpenAI's public listing and subsequent rise to the top 10 companies by market cap will be a significant driver of this trend. Meanwhile, other generative AI firms such as Anthropic and xAI are not expected to be major winners by 2030, according to the Coatue projections.

The Coatue Fantastic 40, a list of projected top 40 companies by 2030, includes a mix of established tech giants and emerging AI startups. The list includes OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft, among others. However, the deck also highlights potential newcomers such as Arm, Stripe, and Databricks, which are expected to play significant roles in the AI landscape.

The impact of AI on companies in the financial services and technology sectors is particularly notable. According to BCG's annual AI at Work survey, more than three-quarters of leaders and managers use generative AI several times a week, but frontline employees' adoption remains at 51%. This gap underscores the need for companies to reshape their workflows and provide the necessary tools, training, and leadership support to fully leverage AI's potential.

Companies actively reshaping their workflows with AI are likely to see significant benefits, including time savings, improved decision-making, and increased strategic tasks. However, these transformations also come with challenges, such as concerns about job security. The survey suggests that employees at organizations undergoing comprehensive AI-driven redesign are more worried about job security than those at less-advanced companies.

In conclusion, the Coatue 2025 investor deck provides valuable insights into the impact of AI on companies in public and private markets. As AI continues to evolve and integrate into various sectors, companies must adapt their strategies to remain competitive. The year 2025 is set to be a critical period for AI, with the potential for significant growth and transformation.

References:
[1] https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/ai-at-work-momentum-builds-but-gaps-remain
[2] https://www.ai-supremacy.com/p/coatue-fantastic-40-by-2030
[3] https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/ecccd-biggest-funding-rounds-ai-thinking-machines-abridge