La revolución minorista impulsada por la IA: ¿Por qué las alianzas comerciales de Google indican una oportunidad de crecimiento elevado en 2026?

The retail landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as artificial intelligence (AI) redefines how consumers discover, interact with, and purchase goods. At the forefront of this transformation is Google, whose strategic investments in agentic commerce-a paradigm where AI agents act autonomously on behalf of users and businesses-are poised to disrupt traditional retail models. By 2026, this shift could unlock trillions in economic value, driven by Google's partnerships with major retailers, open-source protocols, and AI-driven innovations that prioritize personalization and operational efficiency.

The Rise of Agentic Commerce: A New Retail Ecosystem

Agentic commerce moves beyond static digital shelves and manual transactions, enabling AI agents to negotiate prices, manage inventory, and execute purchases in real time. Google's Agentic Checkout feature, for instance, allows users to delegate purchase decisions to AI, such as automatically buying a product if it drops below a specified price. This automation is complemented by AI Mode in Google Search and the Gemini app, which integrates conversational product discovery, virtual try-ons, and real-time comparisons. These tools are not mere conveniences-they are reengineering the entire shopping journey.

Google's partnerships with retailers like Walmart and Sam's Club further illustrate its vision. By integrating Walmart's product catalog into Gemini via the Universal Commerce Protocol, Google enables seamless discovery and purchase without requiring users to leave the AI platform. This collaboration underscores a broader trend: retailers are no longer confined to their own ecosystems but must adapt to an open, agent-driven commerce environment.

Market Adoption and ROI: Early Adopters Lead the Charge

The adoption of agentic commerce is accelerating, with 52% of executives reporting active use of AI agents in their organizations, according to a Google Cloud study. Early adopters, who allocate over 50% of their AI budgets to agentic systems, are seeing higher returns. For example, 43% of these organizations report ROI in customer service and experience, outpacing the 36% average across all sectors. This performance gap highlights the competitive advantage of embracing AI-driven workflows.

Google's open-source frameworks, such as the Agent-to-Agent (A2A) Protocol and Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), are critical to this growth. These protocols ensure secure, interoperable transactions across platforms, enabling AI agents to negotiate and fulfill orders without friction. By fostering an open ecosystem, Google is positioning itself as a foundational infrastructure provider for the next era of commerce.

Disruption of Traditional Retail Models

The implications for traditional retail are profound. AI traffic has surged 1,200% year-over-year, while traditional search traffic declined 10%. This shift reflects a broader move toward zero-click commerce, where AI agents handle entire shopping journeys without user intervention. For example, an AI agent might autonomously curate a "cold-weather running kit" by combining user preferences, loyalty discounts, and real-time inventory data.

Retailers must now optimize for Answer Engine Optimization (AEO), ensuring their product data is structured for AI agents to parse and act upon. Failure to adapt could leave brands stranded as consumers increasingly rely on AI for discovery and transactions. Meanwhile, Google's Agentic AI Checkout and dynamic pricing tools are forcing retailers to rethink inventory management.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the opportunities are clear. Google's partnerships and AI innovations are not just incremental improvements but foundational shifts in how commerce operates. By 2030, McKinsey estimates that U.S. retailers could see up to $1 trillion in sales driven by AI agents, with a global impact of $3–$5 trillion. This growth is underpinned by Google's ability to scale agentic commerce through open protocols and cross-industry collaborations.

Moreover, the Google Cloud study reveals that 74% of executives achieve ROI within the first year of deploying AI agents, with 53% estimating 6–10% revenue growth from generative AI. These metrics suggest that agentic commerce is not a speculative trend but a near-term reality with measurable returns.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment in Retail

Google's agentic commerce initiatives represent more than a technological leap-they signal a fundamental reimagining of retail. By empowering AI agents to act as autonomous intermediaries, Google is creating a frictionless, personalized shopping experience that traditional models cannot match. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: the companies that integrate agentic commerce into their strategies-whether through partnerships with Google or by adopting its open protocols-will dominate the next decade of e-commerce.

As the retail sector braces for this transformation, the question is no longer if AI will disrupt commerce, but how quickly businesses can adapt to the new paradigm.