La rentabilidad de las inversiones en IA y la volatilidad del mercado: evaluando la sostenibilidad del crecimiento impulsado por la IA en medio de las crecientes preocupaciones por los márgenes y los riesgos de reorganización del índice

The artificial intelligence revolution is reshaping global markets, but the question of its sustainability looms large. While AI has driven a surge in corporate earnings and valuations, investors are increasingly scrutinizing whether the current trajectory can endure amid rising margin pressures, macroeconomic headwinds, and the structural shifts brought by index reshuffling. The S&P 500's reconstitution in 2025 has amplified these tensions, with AI-driven firms now accounting for 30% of the index's components. Yet, as the sector matures, the line between transformative innovation and speculative excess grows thinner.

The Promise and Peril of AI-Driven Profitability

According to a report by McKinsey, 88% of organizations now use AI in at least one business function, but only one-third have scaled their AI programs enterprise-wide. This suggests that the bulk of AI's economic impact remains unrealized. While 39% of companies attribute some earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) impact to AI, most report gains of less than 5%. The exceptions-"AI high performers" achieving 5% or more EBIT improvements-are typically those leveraging AI for transformative innovation, such as workflow redesign or new product development.

However, the broader market's optimism is not without justification. A 2025 Stanford HAI report notes that inference costs for advanced AI systems are dropping, and open-weight models are closing the performance gap with proprietary alternatives. These trends could democratize access to AI, reducing costs for businesses and enhancing long-term profitability. Yet, the immediate reality is more complex. AI-driven automation is already pressuring labor markets, with a significant share of recent layoffs linked to AI adoption. This creates a paradox: while AI boosts corporate margins, it risks exacerbating social and political tensions that could, in turn, disrupt market stability.

Index Reshuffling and the Fragility of AI Valuations

The S&P 500's 2025 reconstitution has underscored the sector's growing influence-and its vulnerabilities. With 30% of the index now tied to AI, the index has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and policy uncertainty. For instance, the BUZZ Index, which tracks high-valuation tech and AI stocks, plummeted 15.2% in November 2025 as investors shifted toward defensive assets. This volatility was exacerbated by delayed U.S. economic data due to a government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.

The reconstitution has also highlighted the risks of overconcentration. The "Magnificent 7" companies-NVIDIA, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and others-accounted for 25.3% of S&P 500 earnings in 2025 and are projected to contribute 26.6% in 2026. While these firms are driving double-digit earnings growth, their valuations are stretched, with some trading at multiples exceeding 90× expected 2026 earnings. This concentration creates a "house of cards" scenario: if AI's productivity gains fail to materialize at scale, the entire index could face a valuation reset.

### The Road Ahead: Balancing Innovation and Prudence
Investors must navigate a delicate balance between embracing AI's long-term potential and mitigating short-term risks. On one hand, structural factors such as globalization and a shift toward services have historically supported margin expansion, but these tailwinds are now reversing. On the other, AI's capital-intensive nature-requiring massive upfront investments in infrastructure-could lead to margin compression if returns fall short of expectations.

As stated by Vanguard in its 2025 analysis, the market is becoming more selective, prioritizing firms with clear AI-driven revenue growth over speculative long-term potential. This shift is already evident: while the Magnificent 7 are expected to outperform, the rest of the S&P 500 is projected to see only modest earnings growth (8.1% in 2025, compared to 4.6% in 2024).

Conclusion: A Test of Resilience

The AI boom has ushered in a new era of market dynamics, but its sustainability will depend on navigating three critical challenges:
1. Margin Pressures: As AI adoption becomes widespread, the initial efficiency gains may plateau, forcing companies to innovate further to maintain profitability.
2. Valuation Realism: Stretched multiples for AI leaders risk a correction if earnings growth slows, particularly in a macroeconomic environment where inflation remains above 2%.
3. Policy and Geopolitical Risks: Regulatory shifts and U.S.-China tensions could disrupt supply chains and access to critical AI infrastructure.

For now, the market remains cautiously optimistic. Strategists like Wedbush's Dan Ives argue that the AI buildout is a multi-year cycle, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7,750 by 2026. Yet, as Morningstar's Michael Field cautions, investors should not ignore the risks of overconcentration and inflated valuations. The path forward will require a blend of innovation, prudence, and adaptability-a test not just for AI companies, but for the entire market.