¿Podrán estos dos fondos de inversión en tecnología de IA mantener su rendimiento superior en 2026?

The standout performers in the AI ETF space last year were clear. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKQ) delivered a knockout 50% gain, while the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) posted a return of more than 37%. Both significantly outpaced the broader market, but their paths to that success were distinct.

ARKQ is a concentrated bet on the most innovative, high-growth companies. Its portfolio is a focused portfolio of disruptive firms, a strategy that amplified its gains but also carries higher volatility. In contrast, AIQ takes a broader, diversified approach. With 86 holdings across tech, consumer discretionary, and communication sectors, it spreads risk while still capturing the AI wave. This difference in mandate is key: ARKQ targets pure-play disruptors, while AIQ offers a more balanced basket of AI-adjacent winners.

The common catalyst driving both is the accelerating adoption of agentic AI. As these systems move from simple tasks to complex, autonomous workflows, the demand for powerful underlying hardware-specifically semiconductors-skyrockets. This creates a dual growth engine. Pure-play AI firms benefit directly from new software and service revenue, while the semiconductor manufacturers that supply the essential chips see surging demand. For investors, this means both ETFs are positioned to ride the same fundamental trend, albeit through different portfolio lenses.

Assessing Scalability and Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The long-term case for AI ETFs rests on a massive and expanding market. A Goldman Sachs report estimates that AI could raise global GDP by 7%. That is the total addressable market for the entire ecosystem. The question for investors is which ETF structure is best positioned to capture that growth at scale.

Here, the two funds present a classic trade-off between breadth and concentration. The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) takes the scalable, diversified approach. With 86 holdings spanning tech, consumer discretionary, and communication sectors, its mandate is to capture the entire AI value chain. This broad mandate is inherently scalable. As AI渗透 into industries from healthcare to manufacturing, AIQ's diversified basket is designed to ride that wave without needing to pick the single next winner. Its model is built for steady market penetration across a wide landscape.

ARKQ, by contrast, is a pure-play, concentrated bet. Its mandate targets the most disruptive, high-growth companies, a strategy that delivered a knockout 50% gain in 2025.This concentration offers the potential for higher alpha, but it also introduces greater volatility and a higher bar for sustained outperformance. The fund's success is tied to the continued acceleration of a narrow set of innovators. While the growth potential is immense, the scalability of that specific model is inherently more limited by its portfolio size and focus.

Both faces a significant, rising headwind: the intensifying U.S.-China AI arms race. This geopolitical competition is not just a narrative; it's a direct threat to global supply chains and investment stability. As the race intensifies, it creates volatility for any ETF with exposure to the global AI ecosystem. The risk is that policy decisions, trade restrictions, or technological decoupling could disrupt the seamless growth that both funds rely on. For a scalable model like AIQ's, this adds a layer of geopolitical friction to its broad-based approach. For ARKQ's concentrated portfolio, it could more sharply impact its key holdings.

The bottom line is that scalability and TAM are not just about the size of the pie, but how you slice it. AIQ's broad mandate offers a more scalable path to capturing the 7% GDP boost, while ARKQ's concentrated model offers a higher-risk, higher-potential path to outperforming that average. Both are exposed to the same powerful trend, but their structures will determine how smoothly they can ride it-and how much turbulence they can withstand.

Forward-Looking Outlook: Catalysts and Risks for 2026

The path forward for these leading AI ETFs hinges on a few powerful catalysts and a looming risk that could derail the entire trade.

The major catalyst is the continued innovation and commercialization of agentic AI. As these systems move from simple assistants to complex, autonomous agents, the demand for underlying hardware and software will reignite. This could spark a new wave of strength in the group of innovators that both ETFs hold. For AIQ, with its broad mandate, this means the entire ecosystem-from chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix to software leaders like Alphabet-could benefit. For ARKQ, it means its concentrated portfolio of pure-play disruptors is positioned to capture the most direct upside. The key will be whether this innovation translates into visible revenue growth across the sector.

The primary risk is the high valuation of many AI stocks. The sector has become expensive, with concerns about an AI bubble that could lead to a sharp correction if growth disappoints. As one analyst notes, the AI trade might be a bit on the expensive side. This valuation premium makes the stocks vulnerable to any stumble in earnings or a shift in investor sentiment. The risk is not that AI will fail, but that its growth may not be fast enough to justify current prices, potentially triggering a broad sell-off.

Investors should watch for changes in the competitive landscape. The performance of key holdings like Nvidia and Alphabet will be critical. Alphabet's recent turnaround-from being seen as lagging to a serious infrastructure competitor with its own TPUs-shows how quickly narratives can shift. Any stumble in these giants could ripple through the ETFs. Additionally, the market is seeing new entrants, with several other AI-focused ETFs launching. This could fragment capital and increase competition for the top AI stocks, potentially pressuring valuations.

The bottom line is that 2026 will be a test of conviction. The catalysts for growth are real and powerful, but they must overcome the headwind of high prices. For investors, the focus should be on whether the commercialization of agentic AI can accelerate fast enough to justify the premium, while remaining vigilant for any cracks in the competitive or valuation story.