AI-Driven Jobless Recovery Could Hit White-Collar Workers Particularly Hard, JPMorgan Warns

JPMorgan's Murat Tasci predicts AI will replace white-collar knowledge workers, leading to a "jobless recovery" and potentially impacting 45% of US household employment. Non-routine cognitive workers, including office workers, face a higher risk of unemployment, and the trend may already be seen in entry-level positions. The shift could also pose a significant risk to the overall economy, prompting policy makers to ease monetary policy or inject stimulus.

JPMorgan's senior U.S. economist Murat Tasci has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could replace white-collar knowledge workers, leading to a "jobless recovery" and potentially impacting 45% of US household employment. Tasci, in a recent note, highlighted that non-routine cognitive workers, including office workers, face a higher risk of unemployment due to AI [2].

Tasci noted that the trend may already be evident in entry-level positions, where AI is limiting the number of jobs typically filled by recent college graduates. The economist cautioned that the increased threat to white-collar knowledge workers poses a significant risk to the overall economy, as these workers now account for nearly 45% of total employment, up from 30% in the early 1980s [2].

The economist observed that an unprecedented shift in unemployment trends indicates rising unemployment risk for non-routine cognitive workers. For the first time, workers from these occupations now account for a greater share of the unemployed than workers from non-routine manual jobs [2].

Tasci's prediction comes as JPMorgan's analyst Mark Murphy raised his price target on CoreWeave, a cloud computing stock, to $135, citing the company's long-term prospects in AI data centers. Murphy maintained his overweight rating despite the stock's volatility, attributing it to the company's large bookings and buildouts [1].

While Tasci's analysis suggests a potential economic downturn, tech investor David Sacks, who also serves as the White House czar on AI and crypto, countered that AI will not lead to widespread job loss. Sacks argued that AI and humans will continue to work together, with people feeding AI models necessary context, giving them extensive prompts, and verifying their output [2].

The implications of Tasci's prediction could prompt policymakers to ease monetary policy or inject stimulus to mitigate the potential economic impact of a jobless recovery among white-collar workers.

References:
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/jpmorgan-raises-price-target-on-coreweave-heading-into-earnings-says-ai-ramp-is-intact.html
[2] https://fortune.com/2025/08/10/ai-unemployment-white-collar-knowledge-workers-jobless-recovery-recession/