AI Developers' Performance Tracked by Betting on Models

Gamblers are now betting on AI models like racehorses, wagering millions each month on their picks for the top AI model on sites like Kalshi and Polymarket. This trend mirrors the increasing popularity of AI developers being paid like professional athletes. The betting is based on real-world events, adding a new layer of speculation to the world of artificial intelligence.

In recent months, a novel trend has emerged in the financial world, as gamblers are now placing bets on AI models, mirroring the increasing popularity of AI developers being paid like professional athletes. This trend is particularly evident on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where bettors wager millions each month on their picks for the top AI model. This new layer of speculation is adding a fresh dimension to the world of artificial intelligence.

The betting on AI models is based on real-world events, such as the performance of AI models in competitions or the success of AI-driven products. For instance, the recent restructuring of Meta's AI efforts, announced on August 16, 2025, has sparked interest among bettors [2]. The restructuring involves splitting Meta's Superintelligence Labs unit into four groups, with a focus on building systems that surpass human cognitive abilities. This move has been seen as a strategic step by Meta to position itself as a leader in the race for artificial general intelligence (AGI).

The AI betting market is not without its challenges. The competitive nature of the industry means that companies are constantly seeking to attract top AI researchers with record salaries. This intense competition can lead to a high degree of volatility in the betting markets. Additionally, the weak reception of Meta's latest open-source model, Llama 4, has added an element of uncertainty to the betting landscape.

Despite these challenges, the AI betting market is poised for growth. The increasing investment in AI and the rising demand for AI-driven products are likely to drive the market forward. As more companies enter the fray and the technology continues to evolve, the AI betting market is set to become an integral part of the financial landscape.

References:
[1] https://www.gambling.com/us/news/draftkings-circa-granted-first-missouri-mobile-licenses-for-dec-1-sports-betting-launch
[2] https://www.saba.ye/en/news3535661.htm