AI as a Catalyst for SaaS Rebirth: Identifying the Winners in the Next Software Cycle
The software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry is undergoing a seismic transformation as artificial intelligence (AI) redefines its value proposition. No longer a cost of doing business, software is now a strategic multiplier, enabling enterprises to automate workflows, enhance decision-making, and unlock new revenue streams. Goldman SachsGS-- has positioned AI as the linchpin of this rebirth, forecasting a 2025 industry shift from infrastructure to platform and application layers [1]. This evolution creates a dual investment narrative: resilient infrastructure plays like NVIDIANVDA-- and undervalued application software firms poised to capitalize on AI’s practical deployment.
Goldman Sachs’ Bullish Outlook on SaaS Leaders
Goldman Sachs’ 2025 Software Outlook underscores the resilience of SaaS leaders in integrating AI into core workflows. ServiceNowNOW--, for instance, has demonstrated exceptional operational efficiency, with Q2 2025 subscription revenue growing 21.5% year-over-year and free cash flow margins hitting 16.5%—well above guidance [2]. Its AI-driven tools, such as NOW Assist and AI Control Tower, have seen explosive adoption, with Now Assist consumption surging ninefold in six months [4]. Kasthuri Rangan of GoldmanGS-- Sachs notes that companies like IntuitINTU-- and SalesforceCRM-- are similarly leveraging AI to dominate small and medium business (SMB) segments, where automation of tax filing, customer service, and IT operations is driving measurable ROI [3].
Salesforce’s Einstein AI suite and Intuit’s AI-powered QuickBooks are emblematic of this trend, embedding predictive analytics into everyday business processes. Goldman Sachs’ Ryan Hammond emphasizes that while infrastructure remains critical, the next phase of growth will hinge on SaaS firms’ ability to demonstrate tangible productivity gains [3].
Undervalued Application Software Firms: The Overlooked Gems
While infrastructure firms like NVIDIA command high valuations, application software companies are emerging as undervalued beneficiaries of AI adoption. MorningstarMORN-- highlights firms such as Guidewire SoftwareGWRE-- (GWRE) and PalantirPLTR-- Technologies (PLTR) as exceptions in the AI landscape, where practical use cases are already generating revenue [5]. Palantir, for example, has surged over 1,700% since its 2020 IPO, driven by AI solutions for government and commercial clients [5].
Alarum (ALAR), a lesser-known player, is also gaining traction with a new AI data project projected to boost Q3 2025 revenues by 78% year-over-year [2]. Despite its high price-to-sales ratio (3.67), Alarum’s low debt-to-equity and gross margin suggest a compelling risk-reward profile. In contrast, overvalued giants like Salesforce face scrutiny under the McGrew Framework Model, with intrinsic value estimates currently favoring a “Sell” rating [1].
AI as a Strategic Multiplier: From Cost to Growth
The integration of AI into SaaS is fundamentally altering the economics of enterprise software. Traditionally viewed as a cost center, SaaS is now a driver of top-line growth. ServiceNow’s AI Control Tower, for instance, has exceeded initial annual contract value (ACV) expectations, proving that AI can monetize operational efficiency [4]. Similarly, Intuit’s AI-powered tax automation has reduced processing times for SMBs, creating a flywheel of customer retention and upsell opportunities [3].
Goldman Sachs’ analysis underscores that the AI investment cycle is maturing. While $350 billion in capital expenditures has flowed into infrastructure, the next phase—direct revenue generation—will demand clear profitability metrics [4]. This shift favors application software firms with robust monetization strategies over speculative infrastructure bets.
Conclusion: Balancing the AI Investment Ecosystem
The 2025 AI landscape demands a nuanced approach to SaaS investing. Resilient infrastructure plays like NVIDIA will remain essential, but undervalued application software firms offer asymmetric upside as AI transitions from hype to practical deployment. Investors should prioritize companies with demonstrable ROI, such as ServiceNow’s AI Control Tower or Palantir’s government contracts, while avoiding overpriced stocks lacking sustainable growth narratives.
As AI reshapes enterprise workflows, the winners of the next software cycle will be those that transform software from a cost into a strategic multiplier—delivering efficiency, scalability, and profitability in equal measure.
**Source:[1] 2025 - Software Outlook - Goldman | PDF | Investing, [https://www.scribd.com/document/819244607/2025-Software-Outlook-Goldman][2] Earnings call transcript: ServiceNow beats Q2 2025 estimates, stock dips, [https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-servicenow-beats-q2-2025-estimates-stock-dips-93CH-4149489][3] Kasthuri Rangan • Goldman Sachs, [https://fintool.com/app/research/analyst/kasthuri-rangan][4] ServiceNow (NOW) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, [https://www.aol.com/servicenow-now-q2-2025-earnings-235018772.html][5] Investing in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-... [https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/investing-ai-here-are-6-undervalued-stocks-buy-and-hold-investors]
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