Ageing Population and the Reshaping of Canadian Real Estate: A High-Conviction Case for Long-Term Care Redevelopment

The demographic transformation sweeping across Canada is redefining the real estate landscape. By 2025, the population aged 75 and older has surged to 5.3 million, a 1.7 million increase over the past decade, according to a Cushman & Wakefield report. This trend is accelerating: by 2030, seniors (aged 65+) will comprise 23% of the population, according to the Real Estate Institute report. The implications for housing demand are profound. As life expectancy rises and family structures shift, the need for purpose-built senior housing-particularly long-term care facilities-is outpacing supply, creating a compelling investment opportunity.

A Strategic Repositioning: Sienna Senior Living's Brantford Campus

Sienna Senior Living, a leader in the Canadian senior housing sector, exemplifies how forward-looking operators are capitalizing on this demographic shift. In 2025, the company completed a $220 million greenfield redevelopment in Brantford, Ontario, transforming its campus-of-care model, according to a Sienna press release. The project includes the 160-bed Oakwood Commons long-term care facility, which replaced 122 older Class C beds, and the 147-suite Aspira Brants Landing retirement residence, according to Sienna's announcement. These facilities are designed to meet the dual demand for independent living and specialized care, with features such as accessible layouts, memory-support units, and integrated health services, as highlighted in a Data Insights report.

The Brantford redevelopment underscores Sienna's strategy of replacing aging infrastructure with modern, high-capacity assets. Once fully operational, the project is projected to boost the company's Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) by 3%, according to Sienna Q2 2025 results. This aligns with broader industry trends: constrained supply growth (Cushman & Wakefield projects annual net additions unlikely to exceed 2% until 2030) and rising occupancy rates-Sienna's retirement segment hit 93.1% in Q2 2025, according to an investorshangout update-are driving valuation upside.

Market Dynamics: Supply Constraints and Investor Appetite

The senior housing sector's appeal lies in its structural imbalances. Despite robust demand, construction starts have plummeted to historic lows due to rising costs, regulatory hurdles, and pandemic-related delays, according to a Canopy report. This supply-demand gap is fueling occupancy growth and rent increases. For instance, Canada's senior housing market is projected to grow at a 5.3% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, according to a Grand View Research forecast, outpacing traditional real estate asset classes.

Investor interest is surging. In 2025, Sienna completed a $315 million acquisition portfolio in Alberta and Ontario, leveraging its balance sheet strength (debt-to-adjusted gross book value of 42.2% in Q2 2025, as reported by investorshangout) to secure high-quality assets. The company's financial performance-17.4% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, per investorshangout-reflects the sector's resilience. Meanwhile, institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to seniors housing, drawn by its stable cash flows and demographic tailwinds, as highlighted by the Real Estate Institute.

Risk and Reward: Navigating the Sector's Challenges

While the long-term outlook is positive, operators must navigate near-term headwinds. Rising labor costs and regulatory pressures have compressed profit margins in nursing care facilities, with private sector margins at 9.0% in 2023, according to Statistics Canada. However, these challenges are offset by government funding increases and a shift toward value-based care models. For example, Ontario's recent investments in long-term care infrastructure have spurred private-sector partnerships, as seen in Sienna's Brantford project, reported in a Toronto Star article.

The key to success lies in strategic repositioning. Developers who prioritize modern, scalable designs-such as Sienna's campus-of-care model-can capture premium rents while addressing seniors' evolving needs. This approach also mitigates regulatory risks by aligning with provincial standards for dementia care and post-acute services, as noted in the Data Insights report.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Investment Theme

The confluence of demographic trends, supply constraints, and institutional capital flows positions long-term care redevelopment as a high-conviction theme for investors. Sienna Senior Living's Brantford campus illustrates how strategic repositioning can unlock value in a sector poised for sustained growth. As Canada's aging population continues to reshape housing demand, operators with the agility to modernize infrastructure and deliver tailored services will outperform, making senior housing a cornerstone of the next decade's real estate evolution.