Aflac Stock Underperforming Market Amid Q2 Earnings Beat: Analysts' Price Targets

Aflac Incorporated's (AFL) stock has underperformed the broader market over the past year, gaining 2.6% in the past 52 weeks and 8 basis points in 2025, compared to the S&P 500 Index's 20.1% surge and 8.6% gains. The company's Q2 results showed a net investment loss of $421 million and a 19% year-over-year drop in revenues to $4.2 billion. Analysts expect AFL to deliver an adjusted EPS of $6.81 in fiscal 2025, down 5.6% year-over-year, with a consensus "Hold" rating and a mean price target of $106.21, representing a 2.6% premium to current price levels.

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) has seen its stock underperform the broader market over the past year. The stock gained a modest 2.6% over the past 52 weeks and 8 basis points in 2025, compared to the S&P 500 Index's 20.1% surge and 8.6% gains [1]. The company's Q2 results showed a net investment loss of $421 million and a 19% year-over-year drop in revenues to $4.2 billion [2, 3].

Aflac's stock prices gained 3.4% in the trading session following the release of its better-than-expected Q2 results on Aug. 5. During the quarter, Aflac observed a net investment loss of $421 million, compared to $696 million net investment gains reported in the year-ago quarter. This led to a 19% year-over-year drop in its overall revenues to $4.2 billion. However, this figure surpassed the Street’s expectations by 2.3% [1].

Meanwhile, the company experienced a notable improvement in non-GAAP margin, which curtailed the drop in earnings. Its adjusted EPS dipped 2.7% year-over-year to $1.78 and exceeded consensus estimates by 4.1% [1].

For the full fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect AFL to deliver an adjusted EPS of $6.81, down 5.6% year-over-year. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. While it surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates twice over the past four quarters, it missed the estimates on two other occasions [1].

The stock has a consensus “Hold” rating overall. Of the 16 analysts covering the stock, opinions include two “Strong Buys,” one “Moderate Buy,” 10 “Holds,” and three “Strong Sells” [1].

UBS analyst Brian Meredith maintained a “Neutral” rating on AFL, but lowered the price target from $114 to $111. Aflac’s mean price target of $106.21 represents a 2.6% premium to current price levels. Meanwhile, the Street-high target of $124 suggests a 19.8% upside potential [1].

References:
[1] https://www.barchart.com/story/news/34041443/what-are-wall-street-analysts-target-price-for-aflac-stock
[2] https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AFL/aflac-incorporated-announces-second-quarter-results-reports-second-x0018s8s76tx.html
[3] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3037112/aflac-inc-reports-q2-2025-earnings-adjusted-eps-of-178-beats-estimates-revenue-falls-short-at-42-billion