Affirm Stock Rises 3.28% Amid Bullish Technical Signals And Oversold Rebound

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) shares rose 3.28% in the most recent session, closing at $66.15 after trading between $63.40 and $67.06. The following technical analysis synthesizes multiple indicators to assess current market dynamics.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bullish engulfing pattern on July 15, with the current candle fully engulfing the previous day's body. This occurred near the $63.40 support level, which aligns with the July 14 low. Resistance is emerging near $67.06 (July 15 high), coinciding with the June 27 swing high. The July 11 long red candle ($64.50–$69.91) established a near-term ceiling, while consistent higher lows since late May suggest underlying demand at $59–$61.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($58.92) remains above the 100-day ($54.17) and 200-day ($47.60) averages, confirming a primary uptrend. However, the current price is testing the 50-day SMA from below after briefly dipping under it on July 14. A sustained reclaim above this level would reinforce bullish momentum, while failure may signal consolidation. The 100/200-day golden cross formed in Q1 2025 continues to support the broader bullish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish crossover (signal line above MACD) but with narrowing histogram bars, suggesting weakening downward momentum. KDJ readings (K: 35, D: 38, J: 29) indicate oversold territory, with the %K line attempting to reverse upward. Divergence is notable as price made a lower low on July 14 while KDJ printed a higher low, hinting at potential bullish reversal. Convergence appears likely if MACD follows KDJ’s nascent recovery signal.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply in early July (width: $2.50 vs. June’s $5.20), indicating reduced volatility ahead of earnings. Price recently rebounded from the lower band ($62.04) toward the 20-day midline ($65.80). A close above the midline would signal bullish momentum resumption. The July 11 breakdown below the lower band proved short-lived, typical of oversold reversals in uptrends.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 15 rally occurred on 5.43M shares – below the 7.62M volume of the July 11 sell-off, raising sustainability concerns. However, the July 24–25 advance (6.5M+ shares) validated prior breakouts. Accumulation is evident above $60, with distribution volume dominating above $68. Recent low-volume pullbacks suggest limited selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (41.5) rebounded from near-oversold territory (30.6 on July 14). While still below neutral 50, the upward inflection aligns with KDJ’s reversal signal. Notably, RSI diverged positively when price tested May lows in June, reinforcing $56 as major support. Current readings avoid extreme conditions but warrant monitoring for cross above 50.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March 17 peak ($75.22) and May 23 trough ($46.71): Key retracements cluster near current prices. The 50% level ($60.97) provided support in June, while the 38.2% ($64.70) now acts as resistance – breached intraday on July 15 but not sustained. The 61.8% ($68.50) aligns with the July 8 high. Confluence exists between the 50-day SMA and Fibonacci 38.2%, making $64–$65 critical for directional resolution.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence supports a bullish bias near $62–$63 (July low + Bollinger lower band + 100-day SMA), validated by oversold KDJ/RSI readings. Divergence emerged as MACD remained bearish while price and KDJ showed reversal signals in mid-July. Volume disagreement during the latest advance warrants caution, though Fibonacci and moving average convergence at $64.70 could catalyze upside momentum if decisively overcome. The primary trend remains intact, but short-term consolidation appears probable between $63.40 support and $67.06 resistance.