Affirm Stock Jumps 16.37% In 3 Days As Bulls Target 80 Resistance

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) concluded the recent session with a 3.23% gain to $77.28, marking its third consecutive daily advance and a cumulative 16.37% surge over this period. This bullish momentum follows a significant 12.62% rally on August 4th, suggesting renewed investor optimism. Below is a technical assessment synthesizing key indicators across the required frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
The recent three-day rally exhibits strong bullish candles with progressively higher closes, indicating sustained buying pressure. A notable hammer pattern formed on August 1st (low: $62.62) preceded this upswing, signaling rejection of lower prices and establishing near-term support near $63. Resistance emerges at $78–$80, aligning with the February 2025 peak. The stock must breach this zone to confirm a long-term trend reversal. The absence of bearish reversal patterns (e.g., doji or shooting stars) in the latest sessions suggests continuation potential.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately $60) maintains an upward slope above the rising 100-day ($57) and 200-day SMA ($52), confirming a long-term bullish trend. The current price trades well above all three averages, reflecting robust momentum. Notably, the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA (Golden Cross) in Q1 2025, a bullish signal now being reinforced. Recent pullbacks to the 50-day SMA (July troughs near $60) have consistently attracted buyers, solidifying it as dynamic support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains positive, with the signal line holding above zero since late July, corroborating bullish momentum. KDJ oscillators show the %K line (84) and %D line (79) in overbought territory, suggesting near-term exhaustion risk. However, this aligns with the current strong uptrend; divergences are absent. Should KDJ retreat from overbought levels without corresponding price declines, it may signal consolidation rather than reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Price action hugs the upper Bollinger Band (20-day SMA ~$72; upper band ~$78), indicating strong directional momentum. Band expansion during the August 4th–6th rally reflects increasing volatility and conviction in the uptrend. Support resides near the middle band ($72), while sustained trading above it favors bulls. A contraction in bands would suggest a volatility cooldown, potentially preceding consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains are validated by rising volume, peaking at 9.89 million shares during the August 4th breakout (+12.62%). This surge signals institutional participation. The three-day rally averaged 6.27 million shares daily, exceeding the 30-day average (5.5 million), supporting sustainability. Notably, distribution days (declines on high volume) are absent, reducing near-term bearish concerns.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 75, entering overbought territory. While historically indicating pullback risk (e.g., RSI >70 preceded February’s 20% correction), the absence of bearish divergence tempers alarm. Overbought RSI levels can persist in strong trends, but consolidation near $75–$77 may develop to alleviate overheating.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the trough-to-peak swing from April’s low ($31.58) to February’s high ($80.98), key retracement levels emerge. Recent support aligns with the 38.2% retracement ($55–$58), where July’s bounce originated. Current resistance converges at the 23.6% level ($78), overlapping with prior price resistance. A decisive close above $78 would expose the 0% extension ($81), while failure here may trigger a retreat toward the 50% retracement ($49–$52).
Confluence & Divergence Highlights
Confluence exists at $78–$80, where Bollinger Band resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and prior swing highs converge—making this a critical test for bulls. No significant divergences appear among core indicators; MACD, volume, and moving averages uniformly endorse bullish momentum. However, overbought KDJ and RSI readings suggest limited near-term upside without consolidation. A healthy pullback toward the 50-day SMA ($60–$62) or $72 (Bollinger mid-band) could offer favorable entry points, supported by trend alignment. Conversely, a breakout above $80 would likely accelerate buying.