Affirm Stock Extends Slide With 15% Drop In Four Sessions As Bearish Signals Mount

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) closed at $77.94, down 4.40% for the session, extending its losing streak to four consecutive days with a cumulative decline of 15.45%. This sharp pullback occurred on elevated volume of 6.64 million shares, signaling strong selling pressure as the stock retreated from recent highs near $92.56 on September 19.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a bearish closing black marubozu, indicating sustained selling dominance throughout the day as prices closed near the low. This pattern emerges after a sequence of long red candles, including an 8.20% decline on September 23. Key support now resides at the September swing low of $74.49 (August 21), while resistance is established near $82.73–$85.08, aligning with last week’s failed consolidation zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($80.24) crossed below the 100-day MA ($82.67) in late September, confirming a bearish near-term trend. The 200-day MA ($67.25) remains rising but now lies 15% below the current price. With the stock trading below all three major moving averages and the shorter-term MAs accelerating downward, a pronounced downtrend is evident. Sustained trading below $77.55 (recent intraday low) may intensify downward momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has been entrenched in negative territory since early September, with the signal line accelerating below the zero line, reflecting strengthening bearish momentum. KDJ readings remain oversold (K: 18, D: 22, J: 10), yet failed to trigger a reversal during this decline—a sign of persistent selling pressure. The MACD’s lack of bullish divergence suggests weakness remains uncompensated for by buyers.
Bollinger Bands
Prices breached the lower Bollinger Band ($79.45) for two consecutive sessions before the latest close marginally above it. Band expansion escalated to 15% volatility this week, contrasting sharply with the 8% contraction in early September. This signals panic-driven selling. A reversion toward the middle band ($84.60) seems unlikely without a catalyst, given the width expansion.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution is evident: the four-day sell-off occurred on ascending volume, peaking at 7.73 million shares on September 23. Down days consistently featured higher volume than up days in September—most notably the 10.28 million shares traded during the 7.64% rally on September 15. This divergence indicates weak conviction in rebounds and validates the downtrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28.1) entered oversold territory, below the 30 threshold. This marks the most oversold reading since May 2025. However, oversold conditions have persisted for six sessions without meaningful recovery, underscoring the severity of the decline. Historically, RSI readings below 25 preceded short-term bounces (e.g., late June), but reversal confirmation requires bullish volume and candle patterns.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying the 2024-2025 rally from $35.75 (April 4 low) to $100 (August 29 peak), critical retracement levels emerge. The 38.2% level ($74.80) aligns with August’s consolidation floor, while the 50% retracement ($67.87) coincides with the 200-day MA. The recent breakdown occurred below the 23.6% level ($80.22), transforming it into resistance. This suggests a probable test of the 38.2% support in the near term should bearish momentum persist.
Confluence Points and Divergences
Confluence exists at $74.49–$74.80, combining the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, August low, and Bollinger Band oversold projection. However, critical divergence emerged in late August: price peaked at $100 while RSI and MACD formed lower highs, foreshadowing the current correction. The absence of bullish divergences across oscillators despite oversold readings advises caution against premature long positions. Elevated volume during declines versus muted volume on recoveries further confirms distribution. A decisive close below $74.49 would signal a continuation toward $67.87, whereas recovery above $81.53 (September 24 low) is needed to stabilize sentiment.