Affirm Holdings Surges 8.87%: What's Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• AFRM trades at $80.595, up 8.87% from $74.03
• Intraday range spans $74.05 to $81.41
• Sector leader PayPal (PYPL) gains 2.1%

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is experiencing a sharp intraday rally, surging 8.87% to $80.595 as of 20:37 ET. The stock has pierced its 52-week high of $100, trading near the upper Bollinger Band at $80.25. With a 2.2% turnover rate and a dynamic P/E of 82.4, the move raises urgent questions about catalysts and sustainability.

Short-Term Bearish Trend Clashes with Intraday Rally
The MACD (1.41) and RSI (59.9) suggest a bullish divergence from the 30-day bearish trend. Price has broken above the 200-day MA ($66.01) and 100-day MA ($75.49), creating a short-term reversal signal. The 52-week range (30.9–100) remains intact, but the 8.87% move—driven by heavy volume (6.08M shares)—indicates aggressive buying pressure. The 30-day support/resistance zone (68.63–68.95) has been decisively breached, suggesting momentum traders are capitalizing on the breakout.

High-Leverage Call Options Emerge as Strategic Plays
• 200-day average: $66.01 (below current price)
• RSI: 59.9 (neutral)
• MACD: 1.41 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $80.25 (upper), $72.49 (middle)

AFRM’s technicals signal a continuation of the rally. Key levels to monitor include the 200-day MA ($66.01) and the 52-week high ($100). The 80.595 level is critical; a break above $81.41 (intraday high) could trigger a test of $83. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• AFRM20260109C80
- IV: 53.70% (moderate)
- Leverage: 33.36% (high)
- Delta: 0.57 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.566 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.077 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 386,790 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $4.03 (max(0, 84.62 - 80))
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a 5%+ move, with liquidity to support entry.

• AFRM20260109C81
- IV: 55.24% (moderate)
- Leverage: 40.97% (high)
- Delta: 0.495 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.527 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.076 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 235,080 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $3.62 (max(0, 84.62 - 81))
- Why it stands out: Slightly lower delta but higher leverage, balancing risk/reward for a continuation.

Aggressive bulls should consider AFRM20260109C80 into a break above $81.41, while conservative traders may target AFRM20260109C81 for a measured rally.

Backtest Affirm Holdings Stock Performance
The backtest of AFRM's performance after a 9% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 11.59% on January 59, 2026, the overall win rate over 3, 10, and 30 days is moderate, with returns of 0.42%, 1.53%, and 5.12%, respectively. This suggests that while there is potential for gains, they are not consistently high, and the stock's performance after such a surge is not always favorable.

Bullish Momentum Intact—Key Levels to Watch for Next Move
The 8.87% surge reflects a short-term reversal from a bearish trend, supported by strong volume and technical indicators. AFRM’s rally remains within the 52-week range, but the 200-day MA ($66.01) and 52-week high ($100) are critical for sustainability. Sector leader PayPal (PYPL) gained 2.1%, suggesting broader consumer finance strength. Investors should monitor the $81.41 intraday high and $83.00 level. Aggressive bulls may consider AFRM20260109C80 into a break above $81.41.