Affirm Holdings Surges 8.8% on Earnings Turnaround and Strategic Alliances Amid Tech Sector Doldrums

Summary
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) surges 8.8% intraday to $87.05, hitting a 52-week high of $100.00
• Earnings report reveals a net income swing from loss to profit, bolstered by partnerships with Stripe and Google Pay
• Tech sector declines 1% as Affirm defies broader market trends with a 54% quarterly gain
• Options chain shows aggressive call buying at $90–$92 strikes, signaling bullish short-term sentiment
• Affirm’s 245.38% three-year total return outpaces US market and industry peers, underscoring its growth narrative. This volatile session reflects a pivotal moment for the fintech leader as it navigates a shifting payments landscape.

Earnings Turnaround and Strategic Partnerships Ignite Bullish Momentum
Affirm’s 8.8% intraday surge stems from a combination of financial and strategic catalysts. The company’s transition to net income for FY25, driven by $3.01 billion in revenue and 33% GMV growth, has reinvigorated investor confidence. Simultaneously, partnerships with Stripe and Google Pay—key players in digital commerce—position Affirm as a critical infrastructure provider in the evolving payments ecosystem. These developments, coupled with inclusion in Russell growth benchmarks, have amplified its appeal amid a broader tech sector slump. The stock’s 54% quarterly gain and 245.38% three-year total return further validate its outperformance, as analysts project 23.2% annual revenue growth through 2028.

Payment Services Sector Volatility Amid Tech Market Retreat
While Affirm’s stock soars, the broader Payment Services sector exhibits mixed signals. Sector leader PayPal (PYPL) declines 0.06% intraday, reflecting cautious sentiment despite Affirm’s outperformance. This divergence highlights Affirm’s unique positioning: its AI-driven credit risk models and international expansion strategy differentiate it from peers. Meanwhile, sector news underscores rising compliance demands and innovations in real-time payments, with companies like Visa and Worldpay expanding cross-border solutions. Affirm’s strategic partnerships and Russell inclusion position it to capitalize on these trends, even as sector-wide challenges persist.

Options and ETF Strategy for Navigating Affirm’s Volatility
• 200-day average: $60.56 (well below current price)
• RSI: 65.06 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 2.52 (bullish divergence from signal line 2.55)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $87.05, above upper band of $82.44 (indicating strong momentum)
• Key support/resistance: 30D support at $74.75, 200D resistance at $68.32 (price has decisively broken through both)
• Sector ETF: No leveraged ETF data available, but Affirm’s standalone momentum suggests a concentrated position.
• Top Call Option: AFRM20250905C90 (strike $90, exp 9/5) – IV 51.76%, leverage 52.10%, delta 0.3767, theta -0.3242, gamma 0.0566, turnover $3.49M. This contract balances moderate delta with high leverage, ideal for capitalizing on a 5% upside (target $91.40).
• Top Put Option: AFRM20250905P85 (strike $85, exp 9/5) – IV 58.35%, leverage 47.31%, delta -0.3475, theta -0.0044, gamma 0.0489, turnover $577K. High IV and liquidity make this a viable hedge against a pullback, with limited downside risk.
• Payoff Analysis: A 5% upside to $91.40 would yield a 14.19% gain on the $90 call (strike $90, payoff $1.40). The $85 put offers a 19.78% return if the stock dips to $83.00. Aggressive bulls should target the $90 call into a break above $92.00; cautious investors may use the $85 put to lock in gains.

Backtest Affirm Holdings Stock Performance
I have completed a historical back-test of Affirm Holdings (AFRM) conditioned on a 9 % or greater single-day price surge (close-to-close). Default assumptions chosen for any unspecified parameters:• Entry timing – next-day market open after the ≥ 9 % surge (industry standard for “post-event” studies). • Exit rule – position is liquidated after 5 trading days (max_holding_days = 5) to capture short-term follow-through while limiting exposure. • Back-test universe – full price history since AFRM’s first trading day (2021-01-13) through 2025-08-29. • No additional stop-loss / take-profit filters were requested, so none were applied.These choices balance analytical clarity with typical event-study practice and can be changed at your request.Below is an interactive module summarising the strategy definition and its performance statistics. Explore the tabs to view signal dates, equity curve, and key metrics.Feel free to dig into the module; let me know if you'd like to adjust any assumptions (e.g., different holding period, additional stop-loss/take-profit rules, or alternative surge thresholds).

Affirm’s Bullish Momentum: A High-Volatility Trade with Clear Catalysts
Affirm’s 8.8% intraday surge reflects a confluence of earnings strength, strategic alliances, and market positioning. With RSI near overbought levels and MACD divergence suggesting continued upward pressure, the stock is primed for a test of its 52-week high of $100.00. Investors should monitor the $92.00 psychological level and the $90 call’s liquidity as key indicators of sustained momentum. Meanwhile, sector leader PayPal’s -0.06% move underscores Affirm’s unique growth trajectory. For those seeking exposure, the AFRM20250905C90 call offers a high-leverage, high-liquidity play on a 5% upside, while the AFRM20250905P85 put provides a cost-effective hedge. Watch for a breakout above $92.00 or a pullback to $85.00 to define the next phase of this volatile trade.