Affirm Holdings Extends Rally 8.46% On Strong Technical Momentum

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) rose 3.36% in the most recent session, marking its third consecutive day of gains with an 8.46% cumulative advance over this period. This upward momentum provides context for the following comprehensive technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal a bullish three-white-soldiers pattern formed over the last three sessions, indicating strong buying pressure. Key resistance is established at $73.11 (2025-07-08 high), while support converges near $64.50, aligning with the July 11 low where buyers previously stepped in. The stock is testing the psychological $70 level, with a sustained close above potentially signaling further upside.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($60.23) remains above the 100-day MA ($55.71) and 200-day MA ($49.87), confirming a long-term bullish trend structure. Current price action ($69.47) trades above all three moving averages, demonstrating robust intermediate-term momentum. A bullish golden cross occurred in late April when the 50-day surpassed the 200-day, reinforcing the primary uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover emerging near the zero line, suggesting strengthening momentum. Simultaneously, the KDJ indicator has K-line (84) and D-line (79) in overbought territory, though the sustained upward slope indicates persistent buying pressure. While not yet showing divergence, these oscillators suggest the rally may be extended in the short term.
Bollinger Bands
Price has breached the upper Bollinger Band (20-period, 2σ) during the last two sessions, typically signaling overextension. However, the band expansion from recent contraction (July 10-14) implies volatility breakout confirmation. The midline ($66.20) now acts as immediate support, with the width expansion supporting continued directional movement.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains are validated by rising volume, particularly the 7.5 million shares traded on July 17 – the highest volume in 10 sessions. This accumulation during the breakout suggests institutional participation. Notable negative volume divergence occurred during the July 11 decline, where high volume (-5.58%) signaled capitulation before the current recovery.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 71, entering overbought territory. While historically RSI peaks above 80 have preceded pullbacks (notably before the May 15 and July 11 declines), the current reading without bearish divergence may imply room for further upside. Traders should monitor for potential reversal signals near this threshold.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June 23 low ($59.68) and July 8 high ($73.11), key levels emerge: The 61.8% retracement ($64.20) held as support during the mid-July pullback, while the 38.2% level ($67.80) now acts as near-term support. The recent breakout above the 23.6% level ($69.40) opens a path toward the $73.11 swing high and potentially the 127.2% extension at $75.60.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence exists near $64.50-65.00, where Bollinger Band support, the 100-day MA, Fibonacci 61.8% level, and volume accumulation align. No significant bearish divergence is currently observed among oscillators, though KDJ overbought readings contrast with MACD’s nascent bullish crossover. The most critical technical conflict emerges at $70-71 – a zone combining psychological resistance, July 17’s upper Bollinger Band violation, and peak RSI – where profit-taking may materialize.
Probabilistically, Affirm Holdings shows constructive technical positioning, with momentum indicators supporting further upside provided $67.80 support holds. However, overbought oscillators near the $70-71 resistance band suggest potential near-term consolidation before testing the $73.11 swing high. Volume sustainability remains crucial for confirming trend continuation.