Aerovironment (AVAV) aumenta en un 13.88% debido a contratos del ejército por valor de 887 millones de dólares, así como a las tensiones geopolíticas. ¿Es esto el inicio de una nueva fase de burbuja?

Summary
• Aerovironment (AVAV) surges 13.88% intraday to $362.68, breaking above its 52-week high of $417.86
• $887M U.S. Army contract win for drones and counter-drone systems sparks frenzy
• Options activity surges, with AVAV20260123C380 trading at 3354.55% price change
• Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) jumps 7.82%, signaling defense sector momentum

Aerovironment’s explosive 13.88% intraday rally has thrust it into the spotlight, driven by a $887 million U.S. Army contract win and escalating geopolitical tensions. The stock’s surge to $362.68—its highest level since late 2024—has ignited a frenzy in options markets and drawn comparisons to sector peers. With the defense sector poised for a rally amid heightened global tensions, investors are scrambling to assess whether AVAV’s move is a short-term spike or the start of a sustained bull run.

Defense Contracts and Geopolitical Tensions Ignite AVAV’s Surge
Aerovironment’s 13.88% intraday jump is directly tied to its $887 million U.S. Army contract win for unmanned aircraft, counter-drone systems, and P550 uncrewed aircraft. The deal, announced alongside rising geopolitical tensions, has positioned AVAV as a key beneficiary of the U.S. military’s push for modernization. Analysts highlight that the contract not only secures near-term revenue but also validates AVAV’s role in critical defense infrastructure. Additionally, the stock’s surge coincides with a 7.82% rally in sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT), suggesting broader sector tailwinds. The move reflects investor optimism about AVAV’s ability to capitalize on defense spending increases and its strategic positioning in the UAS (unmanned aerial systems) market.

Defense Sector Rally Gains Momentum as LMT Soars
The Aerospace & Defense sector is surging, with Lockheed Martin (LMT) up 7.82% on the same day as AVAV’s rally. This synchronized movement underscores the sector’s alignment with global defense spending trends. AVAV’s recent contract win and LMT’s performance highlight the sector’s resilience amid geopolitical volatility. While AVAV’s valuation remains stretched (P/S ratio of 9.12), its growth narrative—anchored in U.S. military modernization—resonates with investors seeking exposure to defense-driven innovation.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on AVAV’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 245.55 (well below current price)
• RSI: 81.41 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 3.29 (bullish divergence from -7.26 signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 362.68, far above upper band of 310.06

AVAV’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI nearing overbought levels and MACD signaling strong upward momentum. The stock is trading above all major moving averages and Bollinger Bands, suggesting a continuation of the rally. For traders, the key levels to watch are the 52-week high of $417.86 and the 200-day average of $245.55. While the RSI’s overbought status hints at potential pullbacks, the sector’s strength and AVAV’s contract-driven narrative support a bullish bias.

Top Options Picks:
• AVAV20260123C380
- Strike Price: $380
- Expiration: 2026-01-23
- IV Ratio: 11.57% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 670.53% (extreme)
- Delta: 0.125 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.176 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.023 (moderate sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 39,900 (high liquidity)
- Price Change Ratio: 3354.55% (explosive)
- Why it stands out: This call option offers extreme leverage (670.53%) with high liquidity, making it ideal for aggressive bulls betting on a continuation of AVAV’s rally. The low delta suggests it’s more sensitive to volatility than directional moves, aligning with the stock’s current momentum.

• AVAV20260220C380
- Strike Price: $380
- Expiration: 2026-02-20
- IV Ratio: 30.56% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 31.85% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.428 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.312 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.010 (low sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 12,640 (reasonable liquidity)
- Price Change Ratio: 172.88% (strong)
- Why it stands out: This call option balances leverage (31.85%) with moderate delta, making it a safer play for traders expecting a sustained rally. The high IV ratio reflects market anticipation of continued volatility, while the moderate gamma ensures it responds to price swings without excessive time decay.

Payoff Scenario: Assuming a 5% upside to $380.76, AVAV20260123C380 would yield a payoff of $20.76 per contract, while AVAV20260220C380 would yield $20.76. Aggressive bulls should prioritize AVAV20260123C380 for its extreme leverage, while those seeking a balance of risk and reward may favor AVAV20260220C380.

Backtest Aerovironment Stock Performance
The backtest of AVAV's performance following a 14% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows a significant strategy return of 288.29%, vastly outperforming the benchmark return of 42.97%. The strategy achieved an excess return of 245.32% and a CAGR of 41.29%, indicating substantial growth during the period. However, it's important to note that the strategy had a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, which suggests that there was no loss during the backtest period, potentially due to the conservative nature of the 14% intraday change trigger.

AVAV’s Bull Run Gains Legs – Watch for $417.86 Breakout
Aerovironment’s 13.88% surge is a textbook example of momentum-driven speculation, fueled by a $887 million contract win and sector-wide optimism. While the stock’s technicals suggest a continuation of the rally, investors must remain cautious of its overbought RSI and stretched valuation. The key to sustainability lies in AVAV’s ability to maintain its trajectory above $362.68 and test the 52-week high of $417.86. For now, the defense sector’s strength—led by LMT’s 7.82% rally—provides a tailwind. Aggressive bulls should target AVAV20260123C380 for maximum leverage, while hedging strategies may consider short-term puts if the stock shows signs of exhaustion. Action: Buy AVAV20260123C380 into the breakout above $380.