AerCap (AER) Surges 7.09% on Record Earnings and Strategic Moves—What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• AerCap (AER) surges 7.09% to $129.58, hitting a 52-week high of $130.61
• Q3 net income jumps to $1.216 billion, EPS at $6.98, with $332M gain-on-sale margin
• Full-year EPS guidance raised to $13.70, $1.5B asset sales, and $475M Ukraine recovery

AerCap’s stock has erupted on October 29, 2025, driven by record financial results, a $332 million gain-on-sale margin, and a $475 million Ukraine conflict recovery. The rally reflects a confluence of strategic asset sales, strong operational performance, and a bullish outlook for 2025. With a 7.09% intraday gain and a 20% surge in book value, the stock’s trajectory underscores its position as a leader in aviation leasing.

Record Earnings and Strategic Asset Sales Ignite Rally
AerCap’s 7.09% surge stems from a record $1.216 billion net income in Q3 2025, driven by $332 million in gains from $1.5 billion in asset sales. The company also recovered $475 million from Ukraine conflict-related insurance settlements, boosting total recoveries to $2.9 billion since 2023. These results, coupled with a 20% year-over-year increase in book value to $109.22 per share and a $1 billion shareholder return through buybacks, have energized investors. The raised full-year EPS guidance to $13.70 further signals confidence in sustained profitability.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on AER’s Momentum
• 200-day average: 109.90 (well below current price)
• RSI: 46.55 (neutral, not overbought)
• MACD: -0.1597 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.0187 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at 125.38, Middle at 121.99 (price at 129.58 suggests overextension)

AER’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition but strong underlying momentum. Key support lies at the 200-day MA ($109.90) and 200D support zone ($115.27–$116.00). A breakout above $130.61 (52-week high) could extend gains, while a pullback to $125.38 (Bollinger Upper) may offer re-entry opportunities. The stock’s 6.07x dynamic P/E and 27% ROE highlight its value proposition.

Top Options Picks:
1. AER20251121C120 (Call, $120 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 18.37% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 12.73% (high)
- Delta: 0.9588 (deep in-the-money)
- Theta: -0.1545 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0143 (low sensitivity)
- Turnover: 19,226 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($136.06): $6,060 (max(0, 136.06 - 120))
- Why: High leverage and liquidity make this ideal for a bullish bet on a sustained breakout above $130.61.

2. AER20251121C125 (Call, $125 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 17.51% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.82% (high)
- Delta: 0.8199 (in-the-money)
- Theta: -0.1595 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0449 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 4,684 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($136.06): $11,060 (max(0, 136.06 - 125))
- Why: Balances leverage and gamma for a scenario where AER consolidates near $130.61 before a potential breakout.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider AER20251121C120 into a confirmed close above $130.61. For a balanced approach, AER20251121C125 offers exposure to a potential pullback to $125.38 (Bollinger Upper).

Backtest Aercap Holdings Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test you requested. After every ≥ 7 % single-day surge in Aercap Holdings (AER.N) from 2022-01-01 through today, we measured the subsequent performance for 30 trading days.Key findings • Only 3 such surges occurred during the sample (2022-03-09, 2023-11-27, 2025-04-10). • The average cumulative excess return versus the benchmark became strongly positive after day 5 and stayed so through day 30, peaking near +18 %. • Win-rate (fraction of events with positive return) reached 100 % from day 3 through day 19, demonstrating consistent follow-through. • Statistical significance flagged from day 5 onward, indicating the pattern is unlikely to be random, although the sample size is small. • A tactical rule of “hold 5–15 trading days after a ≥ 7 % surge” would have captured most of the excess return while limiting drawdown.Parameter notes • Price series: daily close prices (default when intraday candles are unavailable). • Event definition: daily return ≥ 7 % (close-to-close). • Back-test horizon: 30 trading days post-event, 2022-01-01 – 2025-10-29.You can explore the detailed, interactive tables and charts below.Open the module to inspect cumulative-return curves, daily statistics, and event-aligned price paths in greater detail.

AER’s Rally Is Legit—Here’s How to Position for the Next Move
AerCap’s 7.09% surge is underpinned by record earnings, strategic asset sales, and a robust balance sheet. The stock’s 20% book value increase and 27% ROE position it as a compelling long-term play. While technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, the 200-day MA and Bollinger Bands indicate strong support for further gains. Investors should monitor the $130.61 52-week high as a key breakout level and the $125.38 Bollinger Upper for potential re-entry. With Air Lease (AL) up 0.12% and AER’s options chain offering high-leverage calls, the aviation leasing sector remains a focal point for capitalizing on this momentum.