Aemetis' Q4 2024: Unpacking Contradictions in Tax Credits, Market Expectations, and Project Timelines

These are the key contradictions discussed in Aemetis' latest 2024 Q4 earnings call, specifically including: 45Z Tax Credit Uncertainty, LCFS Market Expectations, REAP Program Refinancing Confidence, MVR Project Timeline, and Ethanol Margins Expectations:



Revenue and Segment Growth:
- Aemetis reported revenue of $268 million for the 12 months ended December 31, 2024, compared to $187 million in 2023, indicating a 91% year-on-year increase.
- Growth was driven by increases in California ethanol, India biodiesel, and California renewable natural gas segments, with strong performance across all three segments.

LCFS Credit Market Dynamics:
- The price of LCFS credits increased from $44 last year to $75 by February 2025, but dropped by 30% due to a delay in the implementation of LCFS amendments.
- The anticipated implementation of the new LCFS mandates and constraints on crop-based feedstocks are expected to support LCFS credit prices, potentially reaching $200 per ton by 2027.

India Biofuels Business:
- The India biofuels business delivered $112 million in the one year period ending September 2024, driven by biodiesel sales to OMCs.
- OMCs are expected to issue new tenders for biodiesel in Q2 2025, with delayed shipments impacting immediate revenue.

Ethanol Industry Outlook:
- The ethanol industry is expected to benefit from E15 approvals, which could increase ethanol demand by up to 50%.
- The expanded market is anticipated to drive new investments in capacity and higher margins, potentially exceeding $0.50 per gallon in profit.